Reform UK extends by-election losing streak as Makerfield defeat exposes campaign risks

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Reform UK by-election loss

Highlights

Reform UK suffers its third consecutive by-election defeat in Makerfield, a key target seat ranked 29th in winnability since 2024.
Candidate Robert Kenyon’s past sexist remarks spark internal criticism and fears of alienating women voters, raising further reputational risks for Reform.
Restore Britain, a new far-right party backed by Elon Musk, takes 7 per cent in Makerfield, intensifying competition for nativist voters as 65 per cent now view Farage negatively.

Makerfield result deepens strategic doubts

As reported by Financial Times, Andy Burnham’s victory in the Makerfield by-election is seen inside and outside Reform UK as another setback for Nigel Farage’s anti-immigration party. The seat is a notable test for Reform because it ranks 29th among its target constituencies, based on the swing required from its 2024 election result.

The loss is Reform’s third straight by-election defeat, following setbacks in Caerphilly in Wales and Gorton and Denton in Greater Manchester. Polling expert Steve Akehurst calls the Makerfield outcome an “abysmal performance”, arguing that while Reform performs well in council elections, it repeatedly falls short when contests become more consequential.

The setback is compounded by the Conservatives’ by-election win in Aberdeen South in Scotland, their first national by-election victory in almost six decades. That result weakens Farage’s argument that the Tory party no longer operates as a Britain-wide force.

Candidate row and voter coalition add pressure

Internal criticism is now focusing on Reform’s candidate selection and vetting after Makerfield candidate Robert Kenyon is revealed to have made offensive online comments, including a 2019 post saying, “I’m sexist, sorry but I am.” Reform stands by him on the grounds that the remarks predate his entry into politics, but senior party figures say the issue risks alienating women voters and creating longer-term reputational damage.

Some in the party argue Reform needs more media-ready candidates with stronger policy command, although previous attempts to field higher-profile figures have not prevented defeat. At the same time, party insiders are discussing the Makerfield turnout of 59 per cent, up from 53 per cent at the 2024 general election, as evidence that an anti-Reform bloc is mobilising effectively when voters unite behind a single challenger.

Farage is also facing pressure on multiple fronts. On the right, Restore Britain, a new far-right party backed by Elon Musk, is competing for nativist voters and wins 7 per cent in Makerfield, its first by-election. From the centre and left, other parties are also adopting a change message aimed at disillusioned voters, while YouGov polling suggests about 65 per cent of the public now view Farage negatively, up from 59 per cent a year ago.

Farage hardens his anti-immigration rhetoric before the Makerfield vote and calls for “pure, cold rage” over the police handling of the murder of student Henry Nowak. But such interventions are also seen as energising progressive opponents, while a parliamentary investigation into a £5mn gift from crypto billionaire Christopher Harborne in 2024 and a series of campaign missteps have added to scrutiny around Reform’s operations.

Privately, the party is now likely to debate whether to target voters tempted by Restore or instead focus on disaffected Conservative and Labour supporters. Some Reform figures still argue that the Makerfield contest is unusual and should not be treated as a definitive guide to the party’s broader electoral prospects.

In our earlier article on the Makerfield by-election, we explained how Labour’s Andy Burnham secured a decisive win as tactical voting consolidated behind him to block Reform UK. We also highlighted how the result strengthened Burnham’s standing ahead of a potential Labour leadership contest, while the Conservatives’ win in Aberdeen South underscored uneven political dynamics and growing strategic voting pressures across the UK.

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