Natural gas buyers step in from support as heat demand keeps prices firm
On 4-hour chart, natural gas is trading near 3.33 after recovering from 3.05-3.10 zone. Price remains above key moving averages, while structure is still moderately bullish.
Nearest resistance is located around 3.35-3.40; consolidation above this area could open path toward 3.50. Support is near 3.20, followed by 3.15-3.10.
Weather factor
Main market driver now is forecast for hotter weather in US, especially across central and eastern regions. This increases expectations for air-conditioning power demand and strengthens gas consumption in power sector. According to WSJ, Nymex futures rose 3.8% to $3.343 per MMBtu on June 25, supported by stronger weather-driven demand and stable gas flows to LNG plants.
Inventories and EIA
Latest EIA report for week ending June 19 showed 76 Bcf injection versus expectations near 70 Bcf. Inventories reached 2,835 Bcf, which is 49 Bcf below last year’s level but 152 Bcf above five-year average. These data slightly limit bullish scenario, as market still sees storage levels as comfortable.
Supply-demand balance
Prices are supported by rising power burn and steady LNG feedgas, but production recovery and completion of some pipeline maintenance limit potential for sharper rally. Current advance therefore looks justified, but not unconditional: market needs fresh confirmation of heat and weaker storage injections to break 3.40 and hold above it.
Conclusion
Baseline scenario for natural gas remains moderately positive while price holds above 3.20. Chart confirms demand recovery after May-June base, but 3.35-3.40 area remains key filter for continued growth, as I already noted in Natural gas holds gains ahead of EIA report as US. heat supports demand. If buyers fail to clear this resistance, correction toward 3.20-3.15 is possible; break above 3.40 would strengthen move toward 3.50.
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