UK government pursues defence spending increase as Starmer focuses on final policy legacy

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UK defence spending and Starmer legacy

Highlights

Starmer plans to push through a £14.5–£15 billion defence spending increase next week, at least £1 billion higher than previously proposed, ahead of the July 7-8 Nato summit.
Negotiations on an EU reset deal are basically complete, covering closer food standard alignment and a youth mobility scheme, despite a delayed July 22 summit.
Starmer claims net migration has fallen 80 per cent from its 2023 peak and small boat crossings are down 40 per cent year-on-year, but NHS waiting lists rose in April.

Final policy push before handover

As reported by Financial Times, Starmer is using his remaining time in office to "make arguments" for policies already delivered rather than launch a broad wave of new measures, as Whitehall limits major decisions ahead of an expected transfer of power to Andy Burnham on July 20.

One senior exception is the defence investment plan, which he aims to push through next week before the Nato summit in Ankara on July 7-8. He is set to announce a 14.5 billion pound to 15 billion pound increase in defence spending, at least 1 billion pounds more than previously proposed, and Britain has also agreed further funding for the Global Combat Air Programme with Italy and Japan.

Detailed negotiations are also continuing on the government's reset deal with the EU. Although an EU summit scheduled for July 22 has been delayed, one government figure says the agreement, including closer alignment with Brussels on food standards and a youth mobility scheme, is basically complete.

Some other legacy ambitions appear less certain. Plans for a Hillsborough law imposing a legal duty of candour on public officials are likely to stall amid disagreement over an opt-out for the security services, while Starmer has stayed largely silent on assisted dying during a divisive Labour debate.

Domestic record faces scrutiny

At home, Starmer is leaning on a mix of centre-left and tougher enforcement policies to define his record. He moved early on a ban on children using social media, later embraced abolishing the two-child benefit cap and argues that those choices are lifting about half a million children out of poverty.

He is also highlighting his immigration crackdown, with plans to use more military bases to house asylum seekers and close 20 hotels currently used for accommodation. Starmer says net migration has fallen 80 per cent from its 2023 peak and that small boat crossings are down 40 per cent against the same period last year, although the 365-day rolling average remains above the level seen when Labour took power.

The NHS is another pressure point in his final weeks. Ministers are intensifying efforts on routine treatment as Starmer tries to avoid a politically damaging rise in waiting lists before he leaves office, after waits increased in April and returned to February levels despite earlier progress against an interim treatment target.

Hannah White, director of the Institute for Government, says Starmer's most useful final act may be to brief Burnham on the risks building across government. That assessment underlines the financial and operational constraints facing the next administration as it prepares a more radical policy agenda.

In our earlier coverage of Labour’s leadership timetable, we explained how the party’s process could extend the handover and leave Sir Keir Starmer in office for weeks after announcing his resignation. We also noted that the schedule could delay the new prime minister’s first appearance in parliament until after the summer recess, raising questions about how much preparation a longer transition actually delivers.

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