Can uninterrupted South Korea–US trade talks support USD/KRW?

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US Dollar vs Won drops 0.64% today

Highlights

South Korea's assurance that security and trade talks with the US remain unaffected by the Coupang data leak supports policy stability for the won.
This official clarity removes immediate risks to bilateral relations, providing reassurance for portfolio and direct investment flows in South Korea.
USD/KRW continues under bearish pressure, trading below major averages, with 2–3 session range seen at ₩1,460–₩1,475 and further downside favored.

Trade talks continuity supports won stability despite data leak concerns

According to Economictimes Indiatimes, South Korea's Trade Minister Kim Jung-kwan clarified that ongoing trade, investment, and security talks with the United States have not been hindered by the recent Coupang data leak dispute. This assurance eliminates concerns over potential interruptions in bilateral relations, thereby supporting a steady policy and investment framework for the South Korean won. The confirmation of uninterrupted dialogue offers a stabilizing influence on currency flows, though price action has remained under broader selling pressure.

Technical momentum weakens as oversold signals and resistance converge

On the technical front, USD/KRW remains below the MA-20 (₩1,474) and MA-50 (₩1,477) on the hourly chart, and is also trading beneath the MA-200 (₩1,482) on the daily timeframe. Immediate resistance is identified at the Ichimoku Kijun level of ₩1,474. Momentum signals are weak, with both MACD and ADX confirming a Sell stance. RSI is deeply oversold at 24.1, while Stoch RSI and CCI readings further underscore stretched downside conditions. Session readings from Bull/Bear Power show clear seller dominance, and Awesome Oscillator aligns with the prevailing downward momentum. The price closed at ₩1,467 after a low-volatility session near today's high, with indicators confirming ongoing weakness and no significant divergence.

Downside probabilities rise as near-term range firms into focus

In the short term, the forecasted range for USD/KRW over the next two to three sessions is ₩1,460 to ₩1,475, reflecting typical volatility for the pair. Downside moves dominate the immediate outlook, with further declines assigned a 74% probability versus a 26% chance of a recovery. The base scenario anticipates continued trading within these bounds, with a break above ₩1,475 challenging resistance and a fall below ₩1,460 opening scope for renewed lows.

Anton Kharitonov, analyst at Traders Union, notes continued downside momentum in USD/KRW. Despite reassurances from South Korea’s Trade Minister, price action remains weak with all major indicators signaling further selling risk. The outlook stays cautious while the pair trades below key moving averages and resistance at ₩1,475. "Until we see a break above ₩1,475 with improving momentum, my base case favors the downside."

Earlier, analysts noted that downside momentum dominated USD/KRW trading amid ongoing South Korean policy reforms, with volatility remaining elevated. The current backdrop of uninterrupted US-South Korea dialogue and renewed downside technical signals reinforces the prevailing weakness, making a sustained move below ₩1,460 a key risk to monitor in the coming sessions.

Source of Data: USD Price Analysis by TU

The analysis is based on a proprietary model combining technical, on-chain, and expert data. Not investment advice. See methodology

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