Nvidia stock nears $3 trillion market cap ahead of earnings report

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Highlights

• Nvidia is trading just below key resistance at $135, supported by strong AI-driven demand and bullish technical indicators. • Despite a $5.5 billion hit from U.S. chip export restrictions to China, investor sentiment remains positive ahead of the May 28 earnings report.

• A breakout above $135 could trigger a rally toward $153, while a drop below $115 may signal downside risk.

Nvidia is trading just below a key resistance level at $135. A sustained break above this threshold would be technically significant, potentially triggering a rally toward the $153 area. That level coincides with the buy point of a 20-week consolidation base and has historical significance as a reversal zone. The nearest technical support sits around $115, with a secondary level at $96, which served as a floor during previous pullbacks.

The 50-day moving average (MA) has been steadily climbing and currently hovers near $115, reinforcing it as a critical support level. The 200-day MA is positioned around $127.39. Notably, a golden cross—where the 50-day MA crosses above the 200-day MA—has recently occurred. This is generally viewed as a bullish signal, indicating that medium-term momentum is aligning with longer-term trends.

NVDA stock price dynamics (March 2025 - May 2025). Source: TradingView.

Momentum indicators are also providing useful signals. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is approaching 70, which may suggest overbought conditions in the short term. While this doesn't guarantee a reversal, it often precedes a period of consolidation or minor correction. The MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence) remains in bullish territory, although the histogram is showing signs of narrowing, hinting at potential slowing momentum.

Market context: AI tailwinds meet regulatory risks

Nvidia's fundamentals remain strong, supported by the insatiable demand for AI-related chips and data center GPUs. The company is scheduled to release its fiscal Q1 earnings on May 28, with consensus estimates calling for earnings of $0.88 per share on revenues of $43.26 billion. This performance will be closely scrutinized, especially in light of the recently announced $5.5 billion revenue impact from U.S. export restrictions to China. The restrictions affect Nvidia’s H20 AI chips, a key component in its overseas business.

Despite this geopolitical overhang, market sentiment remains predominantly bullish. Oppenheimer recently reiterated its "Outperform" rating on Nvidia, assigning a price target of $175. This implies a 33% upside from current levels. Additionally, news of a strategic partnership with a Saudi Arabian AI initiative involving the purchase of hundreds of thousands of Nvidia's top-tier GPUs has further strengthened investor confidence.

Nvidia is also benefiting from structural tailwinds in AI, autonomous driving, and high-performance computing. With its H100 and upcoming B100 chips dominating the market, Nvidia remains the go-to supplier for AI hardware, particularly among hyperscalers like Amazon, Microsoft, and Google.

Potential breakout if earnings impress

In the near term, Nvidia is likely to remain range-bound between $115 and $135, barring any major earnings surprise. A strong earnings report, particularly one that exceeds revenue expectations and alleviates concerns around Chinese exposure, could push the stock toward the $150–$153 zone. This would represent a breakout from the current consolidation pattern and could attract additional institutional inflows.

However, if earnings disappoint or if guidance reflects deeper-than-expected impacts from export controls, the stock could reverse toward the $115 support. A breach below that level would open the door to $96, particularly if broader market sentiment turns risk-off.

Nvidia is capitalizing on surging global demand for AI infrastructure, solidifying its position through major data center GPU sales. A recent deal with Saudi AI startup Humain highlights its expanding international presence and leadership in generative AI hardware.

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