Australian Dollar vs Yen holds gains as sellers control short-term, long-term bullish structure stays intact

Traders Union
All News
Financial News
Aud/jpy rises 0.51% today to ¥112.24

Highlights

AUD/JPY remains below its short- and medium-term moving averages, with sellers exerting pressure and the longer-term trend still bullish.
Momentum indicators and oscillators signal an intraday bearish outlook, with short-term selling dominating despite an early price uptick.
The expected five-day range is ¥111.38 to ¥113.09, with a 71% probability of a downward move; key resistance is ¥112.25 and support stands at ¥111.98.

Anton Kharitonov, expert at Traders Union, sees the AUD/JPY's modest uptick as technically driven and constrained by the lack of fresh catalysts. He notes sellers maintain near-term control, with price action below the key 20-day and 50-day moving averages and persistent bearish momentum signals. Kharitonov highlights that, despite the apparent long-term bullish structure, a negative Bull/Bear Power and weak CCI give the upper hand to sellers in the short run. Risks of further declines are raised by subdued RSI levels and prevailing intraday selling pressure. He states, "Downside remains the path of least resistance for AUD/JPY until buyers reclaim ¥112.25 and momentum signals shift."

Viktoras Karapetjanc, expert at Traders Union, points out that AUD/JPY continues to hold above the 200-day moving average, signaling that the longer-term bullish structure remains solid. He views the consolidation as a healthy pause that offers new trading opportunities, especially if the pair breaks above the ¥112.25 resistance zone. Karapetjanc emphasizes that current technical conditions are setting the foundation for renewed growth, with the market poised to attract buyers as momentum shifts. He adds, "I expect further upside as the bullish setup stays intact and the market offers multiple setups for traders seeking fresh entries."

Jainam Mehta, market strategist, takes a scenario-focused view with attention to tactical opportunities. He acknowledges that intraday momentum favors sellers, but notes neutral oscillators and a sideways base just under resistance could signal a tactical bounce. Mehta spots potential for a contrarian move if sentiment becomes overly bearish near ¥111.98 support. He concludes, "A swift test of support at ¥111.98 may set up for a quick rebound or a breakout beyond ¥112.25 if selling exhausts."

Bearish momentum persists despite longer-term bullish support

AUD/JPY is trading below the 20-day and 50-day moving averages at ¥112.72 and ¥112.61, but remains above the 200-day moving average at ¥111.32. Sellers retain short- and medium-term control, while the longer-term bullish structure is still intact. The price is trading just below immediate resistance at ¥112.25, with Ichimoku Kijun support at ¥111.98. Momentum signals remain bearish, with both MACD and ADX indicating a sell stance. RSI is at 41.88 and Stochastic RSI at 40.61 show neutral conditions, while the CCI at -57.63 and a negative Bull/Bear Power of -0.26 highlight intraday selling pressure.

Earlier, analysts noted that AUD/JPY was supported by persistent bullish momentum as intervention effects faded and higher Australian yields attracted flows. The current setup signals a shift, with sellers exerting short-term control, making ¥111.98 a pivotal support to monitor for potential downside risk.

Source of Data: AUD Price Analysis by TU

The analysis is based on a proprietary model combining technical, on-chain, and expert data. Not investment advice. See methodology

This material may contain third-party opinions, none of the data and information on this webpage constitutes investment advice according to our Disclaimer. While we adhere to strict Editorial Integrity, this post may contain references to products from our partners.