Nasdaq futures rise as Anthropic outlook lifts tech shares

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Nasdaq futures rise on tech

Highlights

Nasdaq 100 E-minis rise 148 points, or 0.49%, after Anthropic projects 2028 revenue of $190 billion to $200 billion, boosting tech sentiment.
Fed rate hike probability for September drops to nearly 31% amid softer inflation and weak retail sales, down from near-even odds a week ago.
Oil prices remain elevated due to halted tanker traffic in the Strait of Hormuz and no progress in Iran conflict peace talks, increasing inflation risks.

Tech momentum builds before Nvidia results

As first reported by Reuters, Nasdaq and S&P 500 futures gain after AI company Anthropic projected 2028 revenue of about $190 billion to $200 billion, according to two people familiar with its financials. The forecast supports technology stocks, especially after recent pressure on the sector over concerns about returns from heavy AI spending.

Most megacap and growth stocks are slightly higher in premarket trading, with Amazon up 1.3% and Alphabet adding 0.8%. Chipmakers also advance, with Micron Technology rising 3.5% and Broadcom up 1.2%, while Nvidia edges 0.5% higher after a report says it has scaled back plans to support a proposed OpenAI data center project in Ohio.

At 06:20 a.m. ET, Dow E-minis fall 72 points, or 0.13%, while S&P 500 E-minis rise 10.75 points, or 0.14%, and Nasdaq 100 E-minis add 148 points, or 0.49%. Investors are also watching Nvidia's results next week for signals on whether the technology-led rally can continue after a strong second-quarter earnings season pushes the Nasdaq closer to record highs.

Rate outlook and conflict shape market risk

A softer run of inflation data and a surprise drop in U.S. retail sales last week lead traders to scale back expectations for a Federal Reserve rate increase at its September meeting. According to CME's FedWatch tool, markets now price in a nearly 31% chance of a 25-basis-point hike next month, down sharply from near-even odds between a hike and a hold a week earlier.

The policy outlook remains complicated by the lack of forward guidance from Fed Chair Kevin Warsh and by elevated oil prices linked to the Iran conflict, which continue to fuel inflation concerns. Iran calls on the U.S. to accept defeat on Saturday, while President Donald Trump describes Tehran as "very evil" and tells Americans to prepare for continued high fuel prices because of the war.

Progress toward peace talks remains stalled, and oil tanker traffic through the Strait of Hormuz is still halted, with no sign of a near-term end to the conflict. Later this week, investors turn to another batch of quarterly results including Walmart, Home Depot and Analog Devices, while LSEG IBES data shows 84.8% of the 453 S&P 500 companies that have reported so far beat analysts' estimates.

Elsewhere, U.S.-listed shares of Argentina's Vista jump 7.1% after Peter Thiel buys a 1% stake in the oil company.

We previously reported on Nvidia’s talks to invest up to $3 billion in SB Energy as part of wider financing discussions for a large OpenAI-linked data center campus in Ohio. Our coverage highlighted how the deal structure could combine equity funding, credit support and SB Energy’s planned IPO, underscoring the scale of capital being mobilized to meet surging demand for AI infrastructure.

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