Nvidia stock tops $183 as China chip exports resume

Highlights

-Nvidia is trading at $183.26 with a 0.6% gain, supported by a bullish golden cross and rising trend momentum.

-The company received approval to resume select GPU exports to China, boosting investor confidence.

-Analysts see potential for the stock to reach $300 by late 2025, though regulatory and volume risks remain.

Nvidia has completed a golden cross pattern, with the 50-day moving average crossing above the 200-day moving average—a strong long-term bullish indicator. The current price remains comfortably above both these averages, confirming a sustained uptrend since the May rebound. The stock also remains within a rising channel that began forming in late April.

Pattern-based technical models suggest a near-term target of $178 was already breached, confirming the breakout scenario. Looking at Nvidia’s historical bar patterns, technical analysts now forecast a potential rise of 8–10% from current levels in the short term. On the weekly chart, analysts highlight that if Nvidia continues following its 2023 rally trend, it could reach $300 by the end of 2025. That projection is based on both momentum continuation and market expansion in AI infrastructure.

Nvidia stock price dynamics (June 2025 - August 2025). Source: TradingView.

Support zones to watch lie at $159, $150, and $143—levels that served as former resistance before Nvidia’s most recent leg up. These support zones are further reinforced by previous consolidation areas. On a longer timeframe, $130 is a critical level to hold; it coincides with Nvidia’s 50-week moving average and uptrend line from 2022. A break below $130 would expose Nvidia to further downside toward $97, a historically important swing point dating back to early 2023.

Leadership in AI and China comeback

Nvidia’s current valuation and market dominance are virtually unmatched. The company briefly surpassed a $4 trillion market cap earlier this year, becoming the most valuable chipmaker and even overtaking Microsoft and Apple during intraday trading. It is the single largest contributor to S&P 500 gains in 2025 and accounts for over 30% of Nasdaq 100 performance year-to-date. This outsized impact reflects both investor enthusiasm and Nvidia's strategic position at the center of the global AI boom.

According to a recent CNBC report, no other stock in history has had more market influence than Nvidia. Its GPUs power the bulk of AI models globally, including those used in cloud computing, autonomous driving, and large language models. The company is also spearheading the development of high-performance AI-specific hardware like the H100 and Grace Hopper chips.

In a significant regulatory breakthrough, Nvidia received approvals to resume some GPU shipments to China. The H20 chip, developed as an export-compliant alternative to the restricted H100, has been cleared for limited delivery, opening up revenue opportunities in Asia. Furthermore, the launch of the RTX Pro—designed to comply with U.S. restrictions—provides a dual advantage: avoiding export bans while tapping into China’s growing AI demand.

Scenarios into Q4 and beyond

In the near term, Nvidia’s technical outlook remains positive. If the stock holds above $159, a move toward $190–195 appears likely in the coming weeks. The next major resistance is seen at $200, which could act as a psychological and technical ceiling.

In a base-case scenario, with continued AI-driven demand and a supportive macro environment, Nvidia could reach $300 by late 2025. This aligns with both the extrapolated trendline from 2023 and fundamental estimates projecting strong earnings-per-share growth and expanding margins.

Nvidia has ordered 300,000 H20 chips from TSMC to supply Chinese clients, signaling strong demand despite export restrictions. While China promotes local chipmakers, Nvidia's unmatched software ecosystem and AI integration make it hard to replace, highlighting a clash between geopolitical pressure and market realities.

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