Nasdaq Composite extends weakness into 4th day amid Powell’s Jackson Hole speech

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Nasdaq Composite extends weakness into 4th day

Highlights

-Nasdaq rebounds to 21,644 after falling to a 4-day low at 21,560 on Monday

-Open interest stayed sideways during the bounce, showing weak conviction in the recovery

-The index is trapped in a triangle pattern amid Jerome Powell speech at Jackson Hole

The rebound from Monday’s low has raised questions about whether the Nasdaq can build momentum into Tuesday, August 19. For now, the rally appears shallow in conviction. Open interest across futures markets moved sideways during the bounce, showing that traders are not adding new leveraged positions to drive the recovery. Instead, the move higher was likely supported by spot buying or existing positions being held. When price gains occur without a rise in open interest, the strength of the move often remains limited unless fresh participation enters the market.

Nasdaq price dynamic (July - August 2025). Source: Tradingview

Technically, the index is caught within a descending triangle pattern. Horizontal support rests near 21,550, which held steady on Monday, while a bearish trendline drawn from the all-time high has capped upside progress. This setup suggests the market is compressing toward a decisive breakout point, either through a drop below 21,550 or a push above trendline resistance. Until that breakout materializes, price action is likely to remain contained within this narrowing range.

Nasdaq sentiment split as traders await Powell’s signal on inflation and jobs outlook

Investor focus has shifted to the upcoming remarks from Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell at Jackson Hole. Expectations are that Powell will provide updated guidance on how the Fed views an economic environment defined by stubbornly high inflation and signs of rising unemployment.

The Nasdaq Composite ended flat on Monday as participants awaited the outcome of U.S. President Donald Trump’s meetings with Ukraine’s Volodymyr Zelenskiy and European leaders. While these talks carry political weight, the overriding market driver this week remains monetary policy. Any indication from Powell that rate cuts may accelerate would likely weaken the dollar and provide support for equities.

Until then, the Nasdaq Composite remains technically bearish but range-bound. The index’s next decisive breakout of its consolidation pattern will depend on whether policy communication from the Fed confirms investors’ expectations of easing or tempers them in favor of a longer battle against inflation.

Nasdaq dropped after the ISM Services Index missed expectations and raised fresh stagflation concerns. The index stalled at 21,060 as RSI signalled more sideways movement.

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