Nikkei 225 climbs to 43,644 as tech and heavyweights lead gains

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Nikkei index outlook September 9

Highlights

- Nikkei 225 rose 1.45% to 43,644; Topix added 1.06% to a record 3,138

- Rising wedge intact with support from 20- and 50-day EMAs at 42,731 and 42,284

- Politics and better GDP data aided sentiment while trade risks linger

Trend support remains firm. The 20-day exponential moving average at 42,731 and the 50-day at 42,284 continue to slope higher, reinforcing the broader uptrend. Deeper cushions are visible at the 100-day EMA of 41,366 and the 200-day EMA of 40,131, areas that have attracted longer-horizon demand this year.

Nikkei 225 index dynamics (Source: TradingView)

The RSI sits at 66.7, a bullish reading that also signals conditions are edging toward overbought, a reminder that short pullbacks would not be unusual after a strong run.

Politics, growth and sectors shape the tape

The market’s tone shifted after the weekend resignation of Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba, a move that initially stoked concerns about policy continuity but later stirred hopes for a reset in economic priorities. Investors appear to be weighing the prospect of new leadership that could accelerate reform against the risk of near-term uncertainty.

External pressure points remain. Tariff risks tied to the United States continue to cloud the outlook for the auto sector, a pillar of Japan’s economy. Negotiations have shown little progress, keeping the export backdrop fragile. Countering that drag, an upward revision to second-quarter GDP on both annualized and quarterly measures underscored steady domestic activity. The combination of firmer growth at home and elevated external risk helped shape Monday’s selective risk appetite.

Gains were broad but tech and large industrials stood out. SoftBank Group rose 2.1% as investors continued to reprice exposure to its portfolio of technology assets. Mitsubishi Heavy climbed 3.3% on renewed interest in defense and infrastructure themes. Semiconductor-linked names outperformed as well, with Advantest up 4.4%, Lasertec up 2.3% and Fujikura up 1.6%, reflecting ongoing demand for chip-related exposure amid a constructive global cycle for equipment and testing.

Outlook: Resistance ahead, supports below

The near-term path for the Nikkei hinges on whether buyers can keep the index above the 43,600 area and mount a challenge of 44,500 to 45,000. The technical backdrop favors that attempt, thanks to rising short- and medium-term averages and a still intact wedge structure. That said, with the RSI near 67, the risk of brief consolidations increases as the index approaches overhead supply.

Key risks sit outside the charts. Leadership changes in Tokyo and unresolved trade frictions with the United States could inject bursts of volatility. A setback on either front would likely push the index toward first support at the 20-day EMA near 42,731 and then the 50-day at 42,284. A decisive break of those levels would shift attention to the 41,366 to 40,131 band, where longer-term trend support resides.

Medium term, the setup remains constructive. A blend of steady domestic growth, strong balance sheets among major constituents and consistent demand for tech exposure continues to support the case for Japan’s equity market. If policy clarity improves and global risk appetite holds, the index retains scope to extend the advance toward the top of its rising structure.

In earlier coverage, we pointed to the Nikkei’s preference to respect trend support while digesting external shocks, with upside attempts often stalling near channel and wedge caps. Monday’s move fits that framework: supports continue to attract buyers, while resistance in the mid-44,000s remains the hurdle that would confirm the next leg higher.

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