Nasdaq Composite steadies near 21,890 record close ahead of CPI data release

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Sholanke Dele

11.09.2025

Nasdaq Composite steadies near 21,890 record close ahead of CPI data release — Nasdaq investors await CPI to confirm Fed easing

The Nasdaq Composite Index experienced a volatile session on Wednesday, underscoring the ongoing tension between supportive macroeconomic conditions and intraday profit taking.

In premarket trade, the index touched a fresh milestone at 22,000, reflecting optimism after weaker-than-expected U.S. producer inflation data reinforced expectations for interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve next week. However, as the cash session unfolded, sentiment shifted and the Nasdaq fell sharply to 21,810, exposing the fragility of intraday momentum.

- Nasdaq closes at 21,890 after intraday selloff fades on weak conviction.

- Soft producer inflation data strengthens expectations for Federal Reserve rate cuts.

- RSI readings support bullish continuation as Nasdaq eyes CPI for direction.

Despite the selloff, technical factors provided an important cushion. The 20 exponential moving average on the one-hour chart aligned neatly with the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of the week’s bullish swing, forming a strong support zone. This confluence held the decline, allowing the index to recover and finish the day with a record close near 21,890, comfortably above the 50% Fibonacci level. The recovery demonstrated that selling pressure was not reinforced by conviction, a point also reflected in declining intraday volume during the downward move.

Nasdaq price dynamic (August - Sept 2025). Source: Tradingview

Attention now turns to upcoming events that could determine whether the Nasdaq index sustains its upward path. The European Central Bank rate decision later today will provide one element of direction, though the more influential driver will be U.S. consumer inflation figures due soon. After producer prices softened unexpectedly, investors are preparing for a CPI release that could cement expectations of Fed easing. The question for markets has shifted from whether the Fed will cut rates to how aggressive the move might be, including the possibility of a larger adjustment.

Nasdaq RSI readings in bullish territory suggest scope for continued expansion

Technically, momentum indicators offer room for further gains. The daily and four-hour Relative Strength Index both sit comfortably in bullish territory without yet entering overbought conditions. This setup suggests that the market retains scope for continued expansion if macroeconomic data aligns in favor of rate cuts.

Looking forward, a rebound from the Fibonacci 61.8% level strengthens the bullish case. If CPI data reinforces the easing narrative, the Nasdaq could extend its rally and break through the 22,000 level on a closing basis. Conversely, a stronger inflation print could revive dollar strength and temper equity gains, testing the resilience of support near 21,810. Overall, the balance of technical and fundamental signals continues to tilt in favor of further upside as investors prepare for pivotal policy decisions in the days ahead.

Nasdaq stalled at 21,710 ceiling as payrolls outcome shapes rate cut outlook. Nasdaq faces repeated rejection below record highs despite early September strength.

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