WTI crude oil steadies near $61.85 as ceasefire hopes and rising demand cap downside risk

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WTI crude ceasefire support outlook

Highlights

- WTI crude oil trades near $61.85, with $61.5 acting as a firm support floor.

- Israel-Hamas ceasefire and strong U.S. demand ease downside pressure.

- A breakout above $63.2 could open the path toward $65–$66.

WTI price dynamics (Source: TradingView)

The chart reflects a narrowing range, with $63.2 — where the 200-EMA aligns — emerging as the decisive breakout level. A failure to defend $61.5 would expose $60.8, extending the consolidation phase.

Technical setup signals tightening range

Short-term moving averages are clustering, showing equilibrium between buyers and sellers after a volatile September. The 20-EMA at $62.1 and the 50-EMA at $62.3 are aligned just above spot levels, while the 100-EMA at $62.6 and the 200-EMA at $63.2 continue to cap the upside.

Momentum indicators remain neutral. The RSI sits near 47, reflecting mild bearish bias but still within a balanced range that often precedes larger moves. The triangular compression points to a decisive breakout in the coming days.

For now, $61.5 remains the psychological anchor. Holding above it sustains the near-term bullish case, while a clean move above $63.2 would confirm trend reversal and open a path toward $65–$66.

Geopolitics and demand fundamentals shape outlook

The broader narrative for oil prices has turned cautiously optimistic as geopolitical tensions ease. The announcement of a ceasefire between Israel and Hamas, brokered by the U.S. and Qatar, has helped deflate war-risk premiums that had kept traders defensive. U.S. President Donald Trump’s confirmation that he may soon visit Israel adds diplomatic weight to the truce effort, reinforcing market confidence in the region’s stability.

On the supply side, U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) data showed a second consecutive weekly increase in crude inventories, but levels remain historically low for this time of year. Meanwhile, stocks at Cushing and refined product inventories declined, offsetting some of the headline build. Notably, total petroleum products supplied rose to 21.99 million barrels per day (the highest reading since December 2022) underscoring firm domestic demand that continues to underpin price resilience.

Outlook

Overall, WTI remains in a make-or-break phase. The $61.5 support has withstood multiple tests, highlighting firm buying interest at lower levels, while resistance near $63.2 defines the upper limit of the current trading range. A sustained close above $63.2 could trigger a technical breakout, paving the way for a move toward the $65–$66 band, with $67 marking a more formidable ceiling. Conversely, failure to defend $61.5 would shift sentiment bearish and expose $60 as the next downside target. With geopolitical risk receding and demand signals strengthening, the near-term bias leans cautiously bullish, but traders await confirmation through a breakout above the $63 handle.

Earlier analysis identified $61.5 as a crucial level underpinning the current uptrend structure. That floor remains decisive for short-term direction, as a break below it could invalidate the recent recovery sequence and signal a deeper retracement.

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