Nvidia stock jumps 8% as Q3 revenue tops forecasts at $57 billion

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Nvidia stock jumps

Highlights

- Nvidia reported Q3 FY2026 revenue of $57 billion, beating expectations and marking a 62% year-over-year increase.

- Data center revenue surged 66% to $51 billion, driven by strong AI infrastructure demand.

- EPS came in at $1.30 vs. the $1.25 forecast, with gross margins holding firm at 73.4% GAAP.

Technically, Nvidia has broken out of a consolidation pattern that was holding it between the $170–$185 range in recent weeks. With the post-earnings gap up, NVDA now faces minor resistance near $200, with a more significant resistance level at the previous high of $212. If the bullish momentum continues and Nvidia sustains above $195, the stock may target the $220–$230 area in the coming weeks.

Support lies near $185, the pre-earnings level, and a stronger technical floor exists around $170, which coincides with the 50-day moving average. The 200-day moving average is far below, near $135, indicating Nvidia remains technically overbought in the near term, though strong earnings fundamentals justify the elevated valuation for now. A sustained hold above $190 would reinforce bullish sentiment and attract additional institutional interest.

Nvidia stock price dynamics (September 2025 - November 2025). Source: TradingView

Volume has been rising, RSI is not yet in extreme overbought territory, and moving average convergence suggests that momentum is building. That said, if Nvidia fails to break cleanly above $200, a temporary pullback to the $175–$185 range may occur as traders take profits. Such a dip could present a tactical entry point for buyers positioning for a Q1 2026 rally.

AI revenue crushes forecasts as data center surges 66%

Nvidia reported blockbuster results for Q3 FY2026, with revenue reaching $57 billion, up 62% year-over-year, and earnings per share of $1.30, exceeding analysts’ forecast of $1.25. This marks yet another quarter of outperformance, driven largely by soaring demand for AI infrastructure. Following the release, shares rose 2.85% in aftermarket trading, reflecting continued investor confidence in Nvidia’s execution and long-term positioning.

The data center segment alone generated $51 billion in revenue, rising 66% year-over-year, as major cloud providers, enterprises, and governments accelerated their AI buildouts. Nvidia’s strong performance was further bolstered by a 30% increase in gaming revenue to $4.3 billion and resilient gross margins of 73.4% GAAP. CEO Jensen Huang credited the company’s success to its foundational role in powering “AI factories,” while CFO Colette Kress emphasized that demand continues to outpace supply, particularly for the latest Blackwell and Rubin architectures.

However, export restrictions to China remain a material headwind. U.S. rules blocking advanced GPU shipments to Chinese buyers could weigh on Nvidia’s revenue in future quarters, particularly if alternative markets saturate or regulatory pressure escalates. While the Q3 results showed no immediate drag, the risk profile for 2026 and beyond includes geopolitical factors that could disrupt Nvidia’s global growth trajectory.

Bullish bias with key resistance at $212

Given Nvidia’s explosive earnings and positive market reaction, the short-term bias remains bullish. The current breakout above $195 suggests further upside, especially if the stock can close above $200 on strong volume. The next key level to watch is $212, the 52-week high. A clean break above this resistance opens the path toward $225–$230 in Q1 2026.

In the base case, Nvidia consolidates between $190–$210 over the next 1–2 months, supported by continued strong demand and bullish institutional flows. If macro conditions remain stable, NVDA could climb to $230 by February 2026. In the pullback scenario, if the stock fails to hold above $195 and investor sentiment shifts on concerns like overvaluation or tightening export rules, a decline toward $175–$180 is likely. A break below $170 would invalidate the current uptrend and could lead to a correction toward $150.

Nvidia’s earnings report has the potential to move its market cap by over $300 billion, highlighting both its massive scale and the market’s sensitivity. Meanwhile, the semiconductor sector faces headwinds from macroeconomic uncertainty, inventory corrections, and stricter AI hardware export controls.

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