UN agencies urge urgent aid as record El Niño raises humanitarian risks

Traders Union
All News
Geopolitics & Trade
UN urgent aid El Niño risks

Highlights

The World Meteorological Organization warns the current El Niño could reach a record 3.8°C above average in late 2026–early 2027, greatly surpassing past events.
The UN reports up to 50 million people risk increased hunger, with African economies projected to lose $10–20 billion and 1–2% of GDP due to El Niño impacts.
More than $50 million from the Central Emergency Response Fund has been allocated to 11 heavily exposed countries as immediate support for drought, floods, and climate shocks.

Climate outlook and emergency warning

As reported by UN News, the World Meteorological Organization and the UN's emergency relief office are calling for immediate international support to shield vulnerable populations from what they describe as the strongest El Niño event on record.

Celeste Saulo, Secretary-General of the World Meteorological Organization, says the current event could be unprecedented in strength and may peak toward the end of 2026. The agency's latest Global Seasonal Climate Update indicates that sea surface temperatures in the tropical Pacific could rise to 3.8 degrees Celsius above average between November 2026 and January 2027.

WMO notes that an anomaly of 0.5 degrees Celsius above normal is enough to trigger an El Niño alert, while previous episodes linked to anomalies of 3 degrees Celsius have already caused severe disruption worldwide. Saulo warns that current projections move beyond historical records, with extreme weather events already visible and expected to multiply as the pattern strengthens.

She says stronger science-based forecasts and early warnings can still help save lives and protect livelihoods, arguing that a powerful El Niño does not have to become a humanitarian disaster if preventive action is taken now.

Regional exposure and economic pressure

Tom Fletcher, the UN's emergency relief chief, describes the developing El Niño as a major threat likely to bring extreme heat, droughts and floods across Latin America, eastern and southern Africa, Asia and the Pacific. He says the next two weeks are critical to prevent a deeper humanitarian crisis, particularly in Somalia, Ethiopia and Kenya, where funding and emergency supplies are needed before heavy rains arrive.

In southern Africa, priorities include delivering seeds and protecting livestock, while Central America needs immediate assistance to preserve livelihoods. Across Asia and the Pacific, countries are preparing for a mix of droughts, floods and cyclones as climate shocks spread through multiple regions.

Fletcher says as many as 50 million people could face increased hunger because of the weather phenomenon. He also cites an African Development Bank estimate that the event could cost African economies between $10 billion and $20 billion and reduce GDP by between 1% and 2%.

To support resilience efforts, he says more than $50 million has been released from the Central Emergency Response Fund for 11 frontline countries, including Chad, El Salvador, Ethiopia, Somalia and South Sudan. He adds that longer-term impacts could last for months or years, while pressure on the humanitarian system is also compounded by global supply chain disruption linked to conflict in the Strait of Hormuz and the Black Sea.

Our earlier report on the UN-backed plan to move fertilizer through the Strait of Hormuz explained that the mechanism was still awaiting a U.S.-Iran agreement, risking missed planting windows in import-dependent regions. We noted that prolonged disruption could tighten fertilizer supplies, lift agricultural commodity prices, and deepen food-security pressures across parts of Asia and Africa—especially as maritime chokepoints remain under strain.

This material may contain third-party opinions, none of the data and information on this webpage constitutes investment advice according to our Disclaimer. While we adhere to strict Editorial Integrity, this post may contain references to products from our partners.