Black Sea shipping risks surpass Gulf as attacks kill more sailors

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Black Sea shipping risks

Highlights

Over 570 vessels in the Black Sea have been struck in 2023, killing at least 40 sailors, surpassing Gulf casualties, per Ambrey and IMO.
Attacks in the Black Sea averaged more than four per day in Q3, with 387 ships hit between July and September, over fivefold above the previous quarter.
Ukraine's largest private port operator, TIS, saw monthly port calls drop from about 400 in July to fewer than 10 last month due to escalating risks.

Rising attacks disrupt a critical trade corridor

As reported by Financial Times, more than 570 vessels have been struck in the Black Sea this year, killing at least 40 sailors, according to maritime security company Ambrey and the International Maritime Organization. That compares with 24 confirmed fatalities in the Strait of Hormuz, even though reporting in both regions remains incomplete and the full toll is difficult to verify.

Shipowners and seafaring groups say crews on oil tankers, cargo ships and grain carriers face constant danger from drones, missiles and explosive-laden boats as Russia and Ukraine intensify their fight over the route. Ambrey says attacks in the third quarter average more than four a day, with some estimates putting the number of incidents in the Black Sea at more than six times the level seen in the Gulf.

Since Moscow launched its full-scale invasion of Ukraine, the Black Sea has remained a high-risk area for maritime trade. Mines, repeated bombardments of Ukrainian ports and widespread interference with ships' satellite navigation systems have all added to the hazards, while the collapse in 2023 of the UN and Turkey-brokered grain export deal removes a period of relative respite.

Deaths at sea deepen pressure on regional shipping

Recent incidents highlight how close the danger is spreading to NATO and EU waters. On October 15, the chemical tanker Wine Trader is hit by two drones while anchored off Romania's Black Sea coast and waiting to load cargo in Moldova; the vessel catches fire and seven of its 12 crew remain missing. The same night, another chemical tanker, Yara J, is also hit near the entrance to the Sulina Canal, and Romanian authorities later report another tanker struck off the coastline, leaving three sailors missing and one dead.

Security analysts and shipping executives say the violence reaches its most intense phase this summer. Ambrey says about 387 ships are struck between July and September, more than five times the level of the previous quarter, as a Ukrainian drone campaign against Russian vessels expands and Moscow responds with heavier attacks on ships calling at Ukrainian ports; the security firm says Russia accounts for about 90 per cent of strikes on shipping over the past 45 days.

The commercial effect is becoming visible at Ukraine's ports in Greater Odesa. Ukraine's largest private port operator TIS says the port handles fewer than 10 ships last month, down from roughly 400 in July, as operators weigh lower margins against mounting risks to crews and vessels.

In our earlier article on the chemical tanker fires near Romania’s Danube canal approach, we described how the Wine Trader and Yara J incidents underscored the rising risks for civilian shipping in the Black Sea, with crew members reported missing and rescue efforts complicated by rough seas. We also noted that the surge in drone-related incidents near Romania and Bulgaria was heightening concerns about disruption to a key regional grain and commodity export corridor and prompting discussions in the EU about measures to protect civilian vessels.

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