Shell issues third-quarter 2026 outlook update ahead of October results

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Shell Q3 2026 outlook update

Highlights

Shell forecasts Q3 2026 Integrated Gas production at 740,000–780,000 barrels of oil equivalent per day, up from 631,000 in Q2, including ARC Resources acquisition impact.
Chemicals and Products division expects refining margin to rise to $42 a barrel in Q3 2026 from $24 a barrel in Q2, while indicative chemicals margin falls to $208 a tonne.
Group cash flow from operations to reflect a $2.5 billion outflow for BEHG emissions certificates, $3.1–$3.9 billion in tax paid, and neutral impact from $0.8 billion joint venture dividend matched by working capital outflow.

Quarterly outlook across core divisions

As reported by London Stock Exchange, citing London Stock Exchange Regulatory News Service, Shell says its third-quarter 2026 outlook remains subject to finalisation before results are published on October 29, 2026, and that all outlook statements exclude identified items unless otherwise stated.

In Integrated Gas, production is expected at 740,000 to 780,000 barrels of oil equivalent a day, compared with 631,000 in the second quarter, while LNG liquefaction volumes are seen at 7.2 million to 7.6 million tonnes. Shell says Trading and Optimisation is expected to be in line with the second quarter, and the outlook includes the ARC Resources acquisition completed on September 2, 2026.

Upstream production is guided to 1.735 million to 1.835 million barrels of oil equivalent a day, versus 1.824 million in the prior quarter, with exploration well write-offs in the third quarter expected at about $0.3 billion. In Marketing, sales volumes are seen at 2.55 million to 2.65 million barrels a day, but adjusted earnings are expected to be lower than in the second quarter.

In Chemicals and Products, Shell indicates a refining margin of $42 a barrel for the third quarter, up from $24 a barrel in the second quarter, while the indicative chemicals margin declines to $208 a tonne from $270 a tonne. Refinery utilisation is expected at 93% to 97%, with low Rhine water levels affecting utilisation at the Rheinland refinery.

Renewables and Energy Solutions is expected to post adjusted earnings of $0.0 billion to $0.4 billion, while Corporate adjusted earnings are seen between negative $0.8 billion and negative $0.6 billion.

Cash flow and balance sheet implications

At group level, Shell expects cash flow from operations excluding working capital to include an outflow of about $2.5 billion linked to the timing of emissions certificate payments under Germany's BEHG fuel emissions trading framework, which has historically been paid in the fourth quarter of each calendar year.

Tax paid is expected at $3.1 billion to $3.9 billion in the third quarter, while financial derivative instrument movements are guided in a range of $0 billion to $5 billion. Shell also says a $0.8 billion joint venture dividend inflow is offset by a matching $0.8 billion working capital outflow, leaving no net effect on cash flow from operations.

The company adds that non-cash post-tax impairments of biogas assets in Marketing are expected to be largely offset by an impairment reversal in Integrated Gas, with both treated as identified items. Net debt is expected to be affected by the ARC acquisition cash consideration and assumed debt, as well as higher variable components of long-term shipping leases in the current macroeconomic environment.

Shell says guidance on indicative refining margin, indicative chemicals margin and full-year price and margin sensitivities is available in its Quarterly Databook. The company also says consensus compiled by Vara Research is expected to be published on October 21, 2026.

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