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Mike McGlone, industry influencer, points to historically high valuations in the U.S. equity market. In his latest commentary, McGlone highlights that the S&P 500-to-GDP ratio has reached its highest quarterly level since 1936, while a basket of U.S. Treasuries is at its lowest versus gold since 1983.
McGlone also introduces the concept of a 'crocodile-jaws pattern' driven by the elevated S&P 500/GDP ratio, suggesting potential mean reversion ahead.
McGlone has recently flagged potential downside in energy markets. Earlier this year, he suggested that WTI crude oil could fall below $50 by the U.S. midterms. He also noted that heating oil prices doubled in the first quarter, raising concerns about demand destruction.