Market strategy, macro research, and investment analysis by Guy LeBas
Janney hosting 2026 mid-year market update today, Guy LeBas notes
Guy LeBas announces that Janney will hold its 2026 mid-year market update today at 12 p.m. Eastern Time. This session is positioned as a key update for financial markets. Registration details ...
Guy LeBas: Pre-market Thursday hints Wednesday drop followed big gains
Guy LeBas observes that Thursday's pre-market action suggests Wednesday was just a one-day decline that followed significant gains in equities. He adds a note of humility about his own expertise ...
Model evaluates cash and bond value in different inflation terms, Guy LeBas analyzes
Guy LeBas outlines a conceptual approach that compares cash-like instruments to short-term inflation and bond-like instruments to longer-term inflation. This method aims to help identify ...
Guy LeBas: IG credit spreads near 4Q2025 lows in historical context
Guy LeBas observes that investment grade credit spreads have nearly returned to their tightest levels seen in 4Q2025. He points out that these spreads are now in the 8th percentile of all ...
Global interest rates rise on surprise UK bid, Guy LeBas notes
Guy LeBas remarked on market turmoil after the Mayor of Manchester announced a longshot campaign for UK Prime Minister, leading to a spike in worldwide interest rates. LeBas shared a lighthearted ...
Guy LeBas: Gundlach creates liquidity to boost demand for owned assets
Guy LeBas, industry influencer, calls out what he describes as a misleading narrative being circulated by Gundlach. LeBas remarks that this is merely a move to generate demand for assets already ...
Non-residential investment led by data centers boosts 1Q GDP, Guy LeBas points out
Guy LeBas, industry influencer, highlighted that non-residential investment, particularly from data centers, contributed 1.4% to the U.S. GDP growth of 2.0% in the first quarter. This sector ...
Guy LeBas: Credit risk concerns remain despite narrow IG credit spreads
Guy LeBas, industry influencer, raises questions about the disconnect between perceived systemic credit risk and current market pricing. In a recent comment on a survey by Steve Liesman regarding ...
New capital cycle and bond market topics to be discussed, Guy LeBas notes
Guy LeBas announced that he will join the Charlotte Economics Club tomorrow for a discussion about the new capital cycle, including the roles of artificial intelligence, capital expenditures, and ...
Guy LeBas: Surge in market-moving headlines often precedes monthly options expiration
Investment management professional Guy LeBas observes that a notable number of market-moving headlines frequently appear just before monthly options expiration. LeBas highlights his perception ...
Asset classes internalize crude-futures disconnect, Guy LeBas notes
Guy LeBas observes a divergence between futures pricing for crude oil and the value of physically delivered barrels. He notes that, despite tough news at the start of the overnight session, ...
Guy LeBas: Core PCE model matches actual print at 0.37 percent
Guy LeBas highlighted the accuracy of his core PCE model after its prediction of a 0.37 percent increase closely matched the actual reported figure of 0.367 percent. LeBas acknowledged the ...
IG cash spreads reached 89bps today, Guy LeBas notes
Investment grade (IG) cash spreads widened to approximately 89 basis points today, marking a level in the bottom quintile of historical ranges. Guy LeBas highlighted this significant market ...
Guy LeBas: Jan PCE inflation meets estimates as personal spending rises 0.4 percent
U.S. economic data for January shows headline PCE inflation rose 0.3 percent, matching expectations, with core PCE climbing 0.4 percent, also aligning with forecasts. Guy LeBas points out that ...
Yield curve shows flattening after 10-year rate hits 4.20 percent, Guy LeBas notes
The yield curve, previously uncorrelated with rate levels during the first week of the Iran conflict, has shifted notably. Guy LeBas reports that the trend changed overnight when the 10-year rate ...
Guy LeBas cites payrolls contraction of 92,000 below forecasts
U.S. payrolls contracted by 92,000, falling well short of consensus forecasts that anticipated a 55,000 gain. Guy LeBas pointed out that job gains for prior months were revised down by 69,000, ...
Guy LeBas: minus 41 percent correlation signals significant link in month to date and daily returns
A correlation of minus 41 percent has been identified between month-to-date (MTD) returns as of yesterday's close and today's returns. Guy LeBas states that this statistically significant ...
Guy LeBas: GDP growth at 1.4 percent disappoints market
Guy LeBas has highlighted the disappointing GDP growth for the fourth quarter, which came in at 1.4 percent, falling short of the expected 2.8 percent and below the Atlanta Fed's GDPNow prediction ...
Guy LeBas: Fed hawkishness marginally exceeds market expectations
Guy LeBas highlights a slight hawkish tendency in the Federal Reserve's stance compared to market expectations. Several members of the Federal Reserve expressed a preference for including a ...
Guy LeBas signals highest job cuts since 2009 amid fragile labor market
Guy LeBas highlights a significant increase in job cuts, reaching the highest levels since January 2009. He attributes this rise to a few unique corporate situations involving Amazon, UPS, and ...
