Guy LeBas: Jan PCE inflation meets estimates as personal spending rises 0.4 percent

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13.03.2026

Guy LeBas: Jan PCE inflation meets estimates as personal spending rises 0.4 percent — Jan PCE inflation meets estimates

U.S. economic data for January shows headline PCE inflation rose 0.3 percent, matching expectations, with core PCE climbing 0.4 percent, also aligning with forecasts.

Guy LeBas points out that the Federal Reserve's preferred inflation gauge remains elevated, which was already signaled by higher producer price data for January. Additionally, he highlights that personal spending increased 0.4 percent, exceeding the expected 0.3 percent gain, while incomes were up 0.4 percent but slightly below the anticipated 0.5 percent.

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The latest inflation figures and consumer spending data underscore ongoing uncertainties surrounding the Federal Reserve's policy trajectory—concerns echoed during periods when Fed hawkishness marginally exceeded market expectations. These dynamics build on patterns observed when GDP growth at 1.4 percent disappointed the market, highlighting the delicate balance policymakers continue to navigate amid evolving economic signals.

This material may contain third-party opinions, none of the data and information on this webpage constitutes investment advice according to our Disclaimer. While we adhere to strict Editorial Integrity, this post may contain references to products from our partners.

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