Yield curve shows flattening after 10-year rate hits 4.20 percent, Guy LeBas notes

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09.03.2026

Yield curve shows flattening after 10-year rate hits 4.20 percent, Guy LeBas notes — Yield curve flattens after rate peak

The yield curve, previously uncorrelated with rate levels during the first week of the Iran conflict, has shifted notably. Guy LeBas reports that the trend changed overnight when the 10-year rate peaked near 4.20 percent, triggering significant curve flattening.

LeBas highlights the transition from a period of uncorrelated movement between curve shape and rate levels to a more synchronized market reaction following the recent rate peak.

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The renewed correlation between curve movement and rate levels recalls themes addressed when market sentiment shifted in response to surprisingly modest GDP growth at 1.4 percent. Further, these developments underscore market sensitivities similar to those seen during periods of marginally more hawkish Federal Reserve policy, reinforcing the dynamic interplay between macroeconomic signals and yield curve behavior.

This material may contain third-party opinions, none of the data and information on this webpage constitutes investment advice according to our Disclaimer. While we adhere to strict Editorial Integrity, this post may contain references to products from our partners.

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