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Bob Elliott: Oil shock challenges reliability of bottom-up inflation estimates

Bob Elliott: Oil shock challenges reliability of bottom-up inflation estimates
Oil shock tests inflation estimate logic

Bob Elliott, co-founder and CIO at Unlimited, questions the effectiveness of bottom-up, timely price estimates in capturing inflation dynamics.

He argues that current measures suggesting inflation is lower now than in December 2025 do not align with basic common sense, especially in the context of a recent oil shock.

Elliott has recently highlighted other market dislocations. He noted that the housing sector began to cool ahead of the increase in long-end yields, citing the March Case-Schiller index in a previous observation. Elliott also attributed Boeing’s surge in April orders to increased backlog, but cautioned that production increases may be delayed, according to his latest comments.

This material may contain third-party opinions, none of the data and information on this webpage constitutes investment advice according to our Disclaimer. While we adhere to strict Editorial Integrity, this post may contain references to products from our partners.

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