Expectations for Fed rate hikes were low, Dario Perkins notes

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Expectations for Fed rate hikes were low, Dario Perkins notes — Few foresaw Fed hiking rates this year

Dario Perkins highlights that at the beginning of the year, there were few people forecasting Federal Reserve rate hikes. He adds that the entire distribution of sellside forecasts was below the current policy rate.

Perkins draws attention to the shift in expectations over the past 24 hours, suggesting recent discussions about Fed policy may overlook how those initial forecasts underestimated current rate levels.

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Earlier this year, Dario Perkins pointed to clear signs of reacceleration in the jobs market at the start of the year. He has also linked European Central Bank rate hikes to historic German monetary policy shaped by 1970s inflation. These observations frame his recent commentary on shifting rate expectations.

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