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Richard Baldwin deconstructs U.S. deindustrialization by applying a three-way analytical framework. He examines the absorption of manufacturing within the U.S., the net imports of manufactured goods, and changes in local value added per dollar of gross output.
This approach offers a detailed view of the contributing factors behind shifts in the U.S. manufacturing sector.
Earlier this year, Baldwin observed that over $35 trillion in outstanding U.S. government debt drives high liquidity in the bond market. He also noted that global trade became more open, with the U.S. running a record deficit and China reporting record exports in 2025 despite forecasts of fragmentation. These previous observations provide context for his analysis of recent shifts in U.S. manufacturing.