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Eric Basmajian: Economic cycles driven by durable goods, housing, business equipment

Eric Basmajian: Economic cycles driven by durable goods, housing, business equipment
Economic cycles driven by key sectors

Eric Basmajian notes that a significant portion of GDP, including essentials like groceries and healthcare, typically experiences little change, even during recessions.

According to Basmajian, the primary drivers of economic cycles are found in durable goods, housing, and business equipment, which respond more noticeably to changes in the economy. He indicates he has mapped out these relationships, offering further details in a free PDF for those interested.

Basmajian previously stated that the economy was stronger than current levels in 80 percent of historical periods, citing long-term comparisons in recent research. In a separate analysis, he noted that residential building payrolls are down just 2.5% from their peak—less than declines observed before past U.S. recessions—according to payroll data. These earlier findings provide context for his focus on cyclical sectors.

This material may contain third-party opinions, none of the data and information on this webpage constitutes investment advice according to our Disclaimer. While we adhere to strict Editorial Integrity, this post may contain references to products from our partners.

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