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Michael A. Gayed: Spreads historically peak months after recession begins

Michael A. Gayed: Spreads historically peak months after recession begins
Spreads peak after recessions start

Michael A. Gayed highlights that historically, spreads reach their peak 5 to 7 months after recessions start, not before.

He points out that when the National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) officially identifies a recession, the major move in spreads has usually already happened. Gayed adds that JOJO, a referenced tool or indicator, uses leading signals rather than lagging labels to assess economic cycles.

Gayed has previously stated that Jeremy Grantham and Michael Burry have achieved more financial and personal success than their critics in a recent commentary. He has also discussed how a severe short squeeze in the yen could reverse carry trades, positioning U.S. Treasuries as a primary safe-haven asset, according to a separate analysis. These views underscore his focus on market inflection points and leading indicators.

This material may contain third-party opinions, none of the data and information on this webpage constitutes investment advice according to our Disclaimer. While we adhere to strict Editorial Integrity, this post may contain references to products from our partners.

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