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Michael Kao, CIO at Akadia Capital, reflects on the dramatic moves in the yield curve over the past month, particularly highlighting a significant shift in the 2-year segment.
Kao observes that the market may be over-extrapolating Warsh's forward reaction function and emphasizes the role of both rate hikes and oil supply shocks in current market dynamics.
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Earlier this year, Michael Kao analyzed surprising jobs data and a surge in yields in the context of bond market normalization and AI-driven factors. He also provided updates on capital structure analysis, offering new tools for seniority breakdowns in company capital stacks. These previous reviews form part of Kao's ongoing commentary on market structure and risk.