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Ernie Tedeschi: U.S. productivity growth seen cooling to about 1.2–1.5% in Q3

Ernie Tedeschi: U.S. productivity growth seen cooling to about 1.2–1.5% in Q3
U.S. Q3 productivity growth seen slowing

Ernie Tedeschi said a proxy based on U.S. Q3 GDP and hours data suggests year-over-year productivity growth will likely cool in Q3, with a range of about 1.2% to 1.5%. He added that this slowdown is due in part to weak quarterly productivity in 2025 Q4 and the first half of 2026.

Tedeschi previously highlighted that computers and software contribute 25 basis points to core PCE inflation, though he said they are not the main driver of the current gap here. He also observed that California regularly posts stronger GDP and productivity growth compared to the national average here. The latest data adds context to his ongoing analysis of productivity trends.

This material may contain third-party opinions, none of the data and information on this webpage constitutes investment advice according to our Disclaimer. While we adhere to strict Editorial Integrity, this post may contain references to products from our partners.

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