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Cullen Roche: U.S. bond market crisis fears as USD index rises and stocks hit highs

Cullen Roche: U.S. bond market crisis fears as USD index rises and stocks hit highs
U.S. dollar and stocks climb higher

Cullen Roche questions forecasts of an impending U.S. bond market crisis, pointing out that instead of declining, the U.S. dollar index is moving higher and U.S. stocks are achieving new highs. He highlights that the increase in yields is being driven primarily by real yields, not by rising inflation expectations, as 5- and 10-year breakevens remain steady around 2.4%.

Roche has previously critiqued concerns about rapid financial shifts, arguing that the risk of AI agents triggering mass withdrawals from checking to high-yield accounts is exaggerated in a recent analysis. He has also questioned the predictive value of debt to GDP ratios for developed economies, noting that past research may overstate related risks in a separate discussion. These positions align with his skepticism toward dire forecasts about major market disruptions.

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