Brad Setser: CNY strength has not led to Chinese export outperformance

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12.10.2026

Brad Setser: CNY strength has not led to Chinese export outperformance — CNY impact on Chinese trade flows

Brad Setser observes that the Chinese yuan (CNY) has never been strong enough to cause Chinese exports to systematically outperform global trade.

He adds that while the CNY does impact trade flows and net exports, China's trade surplus tends to rise when exports outpace overall global trade.

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Setser has previously tracked shifts in commodity flows, noting that the U.S. imported significant volumes of gold bars in the first quarter of 2025. He also identified volatility in gold and pharmaceutical trade linked to anticipated but unimplemented tariffs. These observations highlight his ongoing focus on changes in trade and cross-border capital movements.

This material may contain third-party opinions, none of the data and information on this webpage constitutes investment advice according to our Disclaimer. While we adhere to strict Editorial Integrity, this post may contain references to products from our partners.

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