Brad Setser: China current account surplus tied to high savings and reduced investment

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21.10.2026

Brad Setser: China current account surplus tied to high savings and reduced investment — China surplus linked to high savings

High savings sustained by policy, and a reduced level of investment after the property bubble burst, remain the root cause of China's current account surplus, according to Nicholas Lardy. Brad Setser agreed with this assessment, adding that the rise in China's current account surplus began well before 2024, though it was masked by other factors.

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Setser has recently highlighted volatility in trade flows connected to policy shifts. He noted that imports of gold bars into the U.S. surged in the first quarter of 2025, with tracking capturing these movements in trade data. Setser also linked swings in gold and pharmaceutical shipments to anticipation of tariffs that were ultimately not implemented in earlier comments.

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