National Grid shares technical analysis: Seller pressure emerges at GBX1,195 resistance

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National Grid flat today at GBX1,187

Highlights

National Grid relies on a regulated return model that shields its earnings and cash flows from economic fluctuations.
The company plans to spend £70 billion to grow its assets by 10% by FY2031, focusing on UK electricity transmission and data infrastructure.
Shares of National Grid trade below key moving averages, with price expected to remain in the GBX1,169 to GBX1,204 range as downside probability is high.

Earnings stability persists as capital plan targets AI-driven growth

National Grid's earnings resilience is underpinned by its regulated return framework, which shields company revenues from broader economic swings and offers a stable outlook on cash generation. The company's recently detailed £70 billion growth strategy, targeting a 10% asset increase by FY2031, reflects a measured push to capitalize on long-term infrastructure demand, particularly through heavy investments in UK Electricity Transmission and servicing expanding data center and AI needs. This capital commitment is balanced by a maintained 4% dividend yield, which appeals to income-driven investors even as capital expenditure remains elevated.

Conflicting momentum signals as technical resistance limits upside

Technically, NG is trading below the MA-20 at GBX1,187 and the MA-50 at GBX1,192 on the hourly chart, while the daily price stands beneath the MA-200 at GBX1,234. The Ichimoku Kijun level at GBX1,195 acts as immediate resistance. Among momentum indicators, MACD signals a strong sell, whereas ADX points to trend strength on the buy side. RSI reads 46.96 (Sell), Stoch RSI signals strong sell, and CCI remains neutral. Bull/Bear Power points to overbought conditions, suggesting buyers have a slight intraday advantage, although divergent readings across oscillators underscore market indecision and subdued directional conviction.

Downside bias prevails as narrow range contains volatility

In the short term, NG is likely to trade within a volatility band of GBX1,169 to GBX1,204. The probability of a move higher remains very low, with downside risk dominating the short-term outlook. A clear push above GBX1,195 would be required to shift the scenario toward further gains, while loss of support below GBX1,169 would reinforce the recent pattern of downside momentum. Baseline expectation is for continued sideways movement within this range amid persisting lack of conviction.

Viktoras Karapetjanc, expert at Traders Union, sees National Grid’s core regulated business as a solid anchor for earnings and long-term cash flow stability. He believes the scale of the new £70 billion growth agenda matches well with rising infrastructure and electrification needs. Despite subdued technical signals and rangebound price action, Karapetjanc maintains a constructive outlook based on fundamentals. "While short-term chart signals are mixed, National Grid’s defensive profile and ambitious strategy continue to support a positive bias for patient investors."

Earlier, analysts noted that National Grid was experiencing persistent weak momentum and downside bias as the stock remained pressured below key technical levels. The current analysis further reinforces the prevailing scenario of subdued trading, with the immediate focus on whether the price can reclaim resistance at GBX1,195 or risks fresh losses should support at GBX1,169 fail.

Source of Data: NG Price Analysis by TU

The analysis is based on a proprietary model combining technical, on-chain, and expert data. Not investment advice. See methodology

The information is based on forecasts and does not constitute investment advice or a guarantee of future results. Market conditions may change. See our Disclaimer and Editorial Integrity for details.