Microsoft holds key support as macro pressure tests AI growth case
MSFT is trading around $489 on September 10 and remains under pressure after pulling back from the $510–515 zone. Today, the key factor once again was U.S. macroeconomic data: August PPI rose by 0.4% m/m and 5.4% y/y, while the probability of a Fed rate hike at the next meeting increased to around 74% after the release.
524.70
534.70
Initial jobless claims, meanwhile, fell to 206,000, confirming the absence of any noticeable cooling in the labor market. The reaction in the bond market remains nervous: the 10-year Treasury yield rose toward 4.9%, increasing pressure on Big Tech through a higher discount rate.
Broader AI demand supports revenue visibility
On the corporate side, Microsoft continues to look resilient. In the latest quarter, revenue came in at $90.0 billion, Microsoft Cloud at $59.3 billion, Azure grew 43%, and commercial RPO reached $678 billion, up 84% y/y. At the same time, the company emphasized that all sequential RPO growth came from customers outside frontier model companies.
This is an important signal, because demand is becoming broader and less dependent on several of the largest AI customers. In addition, Microsoft reduced the time required to bring new GPUs into operation by almost 50% over the year and expects Azure growth of around 45% in the next quarter, pointing to a gradual easing of capacity constraints.
Infrastructure efficiency becomes next valuation test
The new focus in the investment case is gradually shifting toward the efficiency of Microsoft’s own infrastructure. Microsoft is actively advancing Maia 200 and Cobalt, reducing dependence on third-party suppliers and trying to improve the economics of AI workloads. In Copilot, the company is also moving toward a more complex model-orchestration approach, which could potentially reduce the cost of completing tasks.
For the market, this is important because with CapEx at around $41 billion for the quarter, the main question is no longer the scale of investment itself, but Microsoft’s ability to reduce unit costs and maintain margins as AI workloads grow. Analysts remain broadly positive: Bank of America maintains Buy with a $600 target, while Stifel raised its target to $530.
$490 decides whether correction deepens
The bulls’ inability to break resistance around the $515 level and the return toward $490 support increase the risk of a break lower and a decline toward $480–470, although buying could emerge again on weakness, and only a break below the latter level could worsen MSFT’s medium-term outlook. The ability to consolidate above $490, as I noted in Microsoft tests local support as Azure outlook takes focus, would indicate that the chances of testing resistance around $500 remain intact.
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