Can Oracle stock avoid deeper losses after Ellison increases pledged shares for loans?

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Oracle drops 3.51% to $132.25 today

Highlights

Oracle enacted further workforce reductions with some teams seeing double-digit percentage cuts, responding to operational or market challenges.
Project Jupiter in New Mexico faces significant uncertainty as project loans were downgraded near junk status due to permitting and legal issues.
Shares of Oracle fell 3.51% to $132.25, trading below key moving averages as technical indicators signal strong seller pressure with an expected range of $123.3 to $141.2.

Workforce cuts and project setbacks heighten operational uncertainty

Oracle implemented additional workforce reductions, with some teams reportedly affected by double-digit percentage cuts, signaling management's response to operational or market pressures. The company is also confronting difficulties linked to Project Jupiter in New Mexico, as loans financing the data center have been downgraded to just above junk by S&P due to permitting setbacks, legal disputes, and local opposition, contributing to greater uncertainty about capital expenditure projects. Separately, Larry Ellison increased his pledged Oracle shares as collateral for personal loans by 19% over the previous year, highlighting changes in insider financial arrangements.

Bearish momentum confirmed as technical signals stay deeply negative

ORCL is positioned below the 20-period SMA at $139.97 and the 50-period SMA at $145.09 on the hourly chart, as well as under the 200-period SMA at $164.52 on the daily timeframe. The Ichimoku Kijun at $141.99 acts as close resistance. Momentum remains weak: MACD signals Strong Sell, ADX also points to a Sell, and CCI maintains negative readings. Both RSI (30.59) and Stochastic RSI flag oversold conditions, while Bull/Bear Power remains deeply negative, continuing to reflect seller dominance in intraday activity. Awesome Oscillator is neutral and does not confirm a directional bias.

Downside risk dominates as price faces constrained trading range

Looking ahead, ORCL is expected to consolidate between $123.3 and $141.2 over the short term. The probability of a move higher is classified as very low, while the probability of further declines is considered very high. Baseline expectations call for sideways movement within this volatility band unless a sustained breakout above $141.99 resistance occurs, while a decisive break below $123.3 would signal increased risk of additional downside.

Viktoras Karapetjanc, expert at Traders Union, sees a confluence of macro, sentiment, and fundamental challenges weighing on Oracle stock. He believes the recent workforce cuts, project delays, and insider collateral activity highlight management’s cautious stance and rising operational risks. Persistent bearish technicals further keep investor sentiment subdued. However, Karapetjanc notes that oversold signals may offer an entry for longer-term investors if the $123.3 support holds. "If Oracle can resolve project hurdles and rebuild confidence, the stock may regain momentum from a structurally lower base."

Earlier, analysts noted that Oracle faced persistent technical and operational headwinds, with downside risks dominating its near-term outlook. The latest data on workforce reductions, project financing challenges, and continued technical weakness reinforce a bearish scenario, with immediate trading action focused on the $141.99 resistance and high risk of a breakdown below $123.3.

Source of Data: ORCL Price Analysis by TU

The analysis is based on a proprietary model combining technical, on-chain, and expert data. Not investment advice. See methodology

The information is based on forecasts and does not constitute investment advice or a guarantee of future results. Market conditions may change. See our Disclaimer and Editorial Integrity for details.