Strategy stock support test: Key levels to watch

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Strategy slides 3.77% to $147.59 today

Highlights

Strategy spent $142.5 million from USD reserves in one week to cover preferred stock dividends and debt interest payments.
The company increased its Bitcoin holdings by 334 BTC for $28.7 million, now controlling 848,000 coins and increasing digital asset market exposure.
Shares of Strategy trade below key short- and medium-term moving averages, with technical indicators broadly negative and an expected range of $139.91 to $155.27.

Balance-sheet pressures intensify as digital asset bets expand

According to Tradingkey, Strategy spent approximately $142.5 million from its USD reserve in a single week to meet preferred stock dividend obligations and interest payments on outstanding debt, underscoring a period of balance-sheet strain as digital asset prices pulled back. Simplywall reported that the company also reaffirmed a 12% annual dividend rate on its Variable Rate Series A Perpetual Preferred Stock (STRC), with new semi-monthly cash dividends scheduled through October and November 2026, pointing to ongoing capital commitments during heightened market volatility. In addition, News Futunn noted that Strategy acquired 334 BTC for $28.7 million between October 1 and 4, 2026, increasing its total digital asset holdings to 848,000 coins and further elevating its exposure to price swings in the cryptocurrency market.

Bearish momentum persists as resistance limits recovery attempts

The price is currently trading below the MA-20 at $160.62 and MA-50 at $158.29, but remains above the MA-200 at $135.97. The Ichimoku Kijun level at $160.67 acts as immediate resistance, containing potential upward moves. Momentum indicators, including MACD and ADX, continue to signal ongoing selling pressure. RSI sits at 35.57, with Stochastic RSI, CCI, and Bull/Bear Power all pointing to oversold readings and sustained seller dominance intraday. The Awesome Oscillator also signals to the downside, in alignment with prevailing bearish momentum.

Downside risk prevails as reversal probabilities diminish

Over the next few trading days, price is expected to consolidate within the $139.91 to $155.27 range. With a 29% probability of an upward move and 71% chance of a further decline, an upward reversal is statistically unlikely. If the price breaks decisively above resistance, a retest of higher levels could develop, while a drop below support may accelerate downside momentum toward the lower end of the forecast range.

Anton Kharitonov, expert at Traders Union, sees persistent pressure on Strategy as heavy reserve outflows and increasing digital asset exposure amplify liquidity and volatility risks. He believes the technical setup remains bearish, with multiple indicators confirming strong seller control and price likely to stay capped below key moving averages. The risk of further downside is elevated unless major support levels hold. "With the current balance-sheet strain and momentum firmly against buyers, I will not consider any long setups until the price reclaims $160.62 with conviction."

Earlier, analysts noted that Strategy's substantial digital asset gains and aggressive buybacks were accompanied by tightening liquidity and the potential for increased volatility as shareholder decisions loomed. The latest developments underscore persistent balance-sheet strain and amplified downside risk, making a decisive move below the current support band the key scenario to monitor in the near term.

Source of Data: MSTR Price Analysis by TU

The analysis is based on a proprietary model combining technical, on-chain, and expert data. Not investment advice. See methodology

The information is based on forecasts and does not constitute investment advice or a guarantee of future results. Market conditions may change. See our Disclaimer and Editorial Integrity for details.