Weiss Ratings markets supercycle investing strategy for U.S. market volatility
Weiss Ratings is promoting a cycle-based investment product that says long-term economic patterns point to an unusually severe period of market turbulence ahead. The pitch centers on historical forecasting models tied to major downturns and rallies, and positions stocks, ETFs and occasional options as ways for investors to respond.
Highlights
- Weiss Ratings markets the Supercycle Investor service, citing forecasting models that claim to anticipate major economic and market cycles since the 1920s.
- The product applies cycle analysis theories from Nikolai Kondratieff and Edward R. Dewey, positioning Sean Brodrick as the lead strategist using stocks, ETFs, and options.
- The company claims its research forecasted major moves in stocks since 1986, gold since 1999, and significant shifts in the U.S. dollar, euro, oil, and commodities.
Cycle model and product positioning
As stated by Weiss Ratings, the offering called Supercycle Investor uses forecasting tools that it says have anticipated major economic and market events, including the Roaring 1920s, the Great Depression and later shifts across asset classes.The promotional text says some of the underlying cycle work was identified by Russian economist Nikolai Kondratieff in 1925, while additional methods were developed later by U.S. economist Edward R. Dewey. It says Dewey's work, commissioned during Herbert Hoover's presidency in 1932, concluded that chart-based cycle analysis could have signaled the Great Depression in advance.
Weiss Ratings also presents the service as a modern application of those methods. It says Sean Brodrick applies the research to investment ideas using stocks, ETFs and occasional options.
Track record claims and investor focus
The material links the current strategy to internal research developed by analysts including Larry Edelson, who died in 2017, and Sean Brodrick, who it says worked with Edelson for more than a decade.According to the company description, that research has helped predict major stock market moves since 1986, gold-market trends since 1999, and significant swings in the U.S. dollar, the euro, oil and other commodities. The message is aimed at investors seeking to profit from broad macroeconomic and market cycles rather than from single-company fundamentals.
In our earlier report on the Philippine Social Security System’s (SSS) equity portfolio performance, we covered how the pension fund defended its strategy by highlighting P204 billion in realized gains and dividend income since 1968 despite recent unrealized losses. We also noted SSS’s emphasis on disciplined, fundamentals-based investing and the idea that paper losses are not cash losses unless assets are sold below cost.
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