U.S. stock futures fall as midterm vote keeps investors focused on Congress control

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US stock futures fall on midterm focus

Highlights

S&P 500 futures drop 0.5% and Nasdaq futures fall 0.9% as investors await final results of the U.S. midterm election.
AMD beats market expectations with strong Q3 results and forecasts faster-than-expected 2027 growth, boosting Asia-Pacific shares as MSCI's index rises 0.4%.
Oil prices remain volatile amid negotiations on Ukraine and Iran conflicts and an effective blockade at the Strait of Hormuz, intensifying inflation and interest rate uncertainty.

Election outcome shapes immediate market moves

As reported by Reuters, futures for the S&P 500 slide 0.5% and Nasdaq futures fall 0.9% as investors brace for the outcome of the U.S. midterm election.

Democrat Jon Ossoff wins re-election in Georgia, marking the first significant race call of the night as polls close in seven states. Democrats are favoured to capture the House, while both parties remain locked in a state-by-state battle for the Senate.

In the Senate, where at least nine races are viewed as competitive, Democrats secure the first of 35 seats up for grabs on Tuesday, with U.S. Senator Mark Warner winning re-election in Virginia as expected. Democrats need to net four seats to win control of that chamber.

Chris Weston, head of research at Pepperstone, says the distinction between a narrow Democratic majority and a commanding victory is critical for traders. He adds that the biggest market reaction may depend less on which party wins Congress and more on how decisive the result is relative to expectations.

Tech earnings support Asia as oil stays volatile

Asian markets edge higher as battered technology shares find support after strong results from chipmaker AMD ease some concerns about the durability of the AI trade.

MSCI's broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan rises 0.4%, led by South Korean stocks, which gain more than 2% in early trading. Japan's Nikkei falls 1.5% after returning from a holiday.

AMD forecasts faster-than-expected 2027 growth as its data-center sales surge and its multibillion-dollar challenge to Nvidia gathers pace. The outlook, together with third-quarter results that beat market expectations, offers a counterpoint to fears that momentum in AI-related investment is fading after Intel issues a weak outlook last week.

Oil prices remain choppy after falling to a four-week low in the previous session, as investors weigh talks to end the wars in Ukraine and Iran against concerns that recent attacks in both conflicts could further disrupt supply. The effective blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, which previously handled 20% of global oil supplies, is also redrawing energy flows, lifting inflation concerns and unsettling the global interest rate outlook.

Our earlier article on Republicans’ late-cycle advertising surge ahead of the U.S. midterm elections explained how tightening polls pushed the party to sharply increase spending across Senate and House races, including contests once seen as safe. It also highlighted how fuel costs and broader affordability pressures were becoming central to voter sentiment and campaign strategy in key battlegrounds.

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