WTI continues to trade near multi-week highs as escalating tensions in the Middle East keep supply risks firmly in focus. Market sentiment has been supported by renewed concerns over disruptions to crude shipments through the Strait of Hormuz and the Bab el Mandeb corridor after fresh attacks on commercial vessels and military escalation involving Iran and its regional allies.
These developments have prompted traders to rebuild the geopolitical risk premium despite lingering uncertainty over global demand.
OPEC+ supply policy limits the upside but has not reversed sentiment
The latest OPEC+ decision to proceed with another gradual production increase for August reflects the group's intention to stabilize the market while retaining flexibility should conditions deteriorate. Although additional supply would normally ease upward pressure on prices, investors remain more focused on the possibility of transport disruptions than on incremental production increases. As long as geopolitical uncertainty persists, the market appears willing to discount higher OPEC+ output.
Macro backdrop remains supportive for energy prices
Recent U.S. macroeconomic data have reinforced expectations that the Federal Reserve is approaching a less restrictive policy stance later this year, supporting the outlook for fuel demand. At the same time, the stronger U.S. dollar has limited part of the rally by making crude more expensive for international buyers. Investors continue to monitor global growth indicators together with refinery activity and inventory trends, but geopolitical developments remain the dominant catalyst for short-term price action.
Technical momentum remains constructive
The hourly chart shows WTI maintaining a sequence of higher highs and higher lows after recovering sharply from the summer lows. Price remains above its short, medium and long-term moving averages, confirming that buyers continue to control the near-term trend. Even though the recent advance leaves the market vulnerable to temporary profit taking, any pullback toward nearby support could attract fresh buying interest while geopolitical risks remain elevated.
As I wrote in the article WTI rally pauses as supply concerns compete with diplomatic hopes, a sustained break above the recent highs would strengthen the bullish outlook, whereas a move back below the nearest support zone would be the first indication that upside momentum is beginning to fade.
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