Brent crude drops as sellers drive price action

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Brent crude drops 5.41% to $103.99

Highlights

Brent crude traded near $111.90 per barrel as market participants reacted to geopolitical tensions involving the United States and Iran.
Concerns over potential disruptions to global oil supplies drove increased volatility in the crude market.
Brent crude declined 5.41% to $103.99, with technical indicators showing persistent seller control and an expected range of $100.63 to $107.35 over the next three days.

Supply disruption fears as US-Iran tension fuels sentiment shift

Recent geopolitical tensions between the United States and Iran have driven Brent crude prices to near $111.90 per barrel, reflecting concerns over potential disruptions to global oil supplies, according to Tekedia.

Technical resistance and oversold signals amid persistent selling

On the H4 chart, XBR/USD is trading below the MA-20 at $110.95 and the MA-50 at $113.18, indicating resistance at these levels, while the MA-200 on the daily sits lower at $95.49. The Ichimoku Kijun provides immediate resistance at $110.75 in the current setup. MACD and ADX continue to signal selling pressure. RSI, Stoch RSI, and CCI are all in oversold territory, indicating possible exhaustion but no confirmed reversal. Bull/Bear Power remains negative, pointing to dominant intraday selling, and the Awesome Oscillator holds a bearish stance, further confirming downside momentum.

Sideways bias likely as bearish probabilities outweigh reversal risk

Looking ahead over the next two to three trading days, XBR/USD is expected to consolidate within a range of $100.63 to $107.35. There is a 21% probability of a bullish reversal and a 79% likelihood of a continued move lower. The baseline scenario is sideways action inside this volatility band. A break above immediate resistance at the Kijun could open room for a recovery, while failure to hold above the lower bound may see renewed declines.

Viktoras Karapetjanc, expert at Traders Union, sees heightened volatility in Brent crude as a direct consequence of ongoing geopolitical tensions. The analyst notes that technical momentum is bearish for now, but oversold readings and strong global demand could lead to a rebound if resistance is reclaimed. He expects consolidation near current lows, with fundamental risks keeping the outlook cautious but constructive. "If Brent holds above $100.63 and geopolitical concerns ease, a move higher could quickly follow," Karapetjanc says.

Earlier, analysts noted that Brent crude was experiencing heightened volatility and mixed technical momentum amid ongoing geopolitical tensions and production uncertainties. The current setup reinforces the downside risks, with bearish momentum dominating and traders advised to monitor for a decisive move outside the $100.63 to $107.35 range as a signal for the next major trend.

Source of Data: XBR Price Analysis by TU

The analysis is based on a proprietary model combining technical, on-chain, and expert data. Not investment advice. See methodology

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