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Cboe Global Markets reports that oil prices have dropped to a three-month low, leading to a normalization of risk sentiment and positioning in the oil markets. The normalization is reflected in one-month oil volatility returning to pre-War levels.
Cboe Global Markets adds that the S&P 500 Index advanced by 0.7% last week. Meanwhile, the VIX Index declined during the same period.
CBOE is trading at $293.18, which is well below both the MA-20 ($321.74) and MA-50 ($318.14), but remains above the MA-200 ($273.88). This setup points to lingering downward pressure in the short and medium term, while the long-term trend still offers support from lower levels. The Ichimoku Kijun sits at $320.57, marking it as immediate resistance. Near-term support is found at the MA-200 ($273.88), with key support at the MA-100 ($300.26). Immediate resistance is at the Ichimoku Kijun ($320.57), and key resistance is the MA-20 ($321.74).
Momentum signals on D1 are bearish, shown by a negative MACD and firm "Sell" readings for both ADX and RSI. Both RSI (40.35) and CCI (-56.35) indicate a drift into oversold territory, while Stoch RSI and BBP also reinforce that sellers dominate intraday activity. The Awesome Oscillator remains neutral, which does not contradict the prevailing bearish tone. Over the past week, CBOE has slipped $1.73, or 0.59%, from a previous close of $294.91, placing the price in the middle of the weekly range as volatility stands at 10.90%. This performance reflects a moderate decline from weekly highs, with current momentum reinforcing the gradual downside bias.
Looking ahead, next week’s expected range sits between $289 and $302, incorporating the typical weekly volatility and firmly within the 52-week span of $223.54 to $371.18. Based on the W1 signals—one "Strong Buy" (MACD), combined with bearish ADX and RSI—the probability of a price increase is very low (less than 20%), while the chance of a further decline is much more likely. Baseline scenario: price trades sideways between near-term support and resistance. Bullish scenario: a close above $321.00 would open room to challenge higher resistances. Bearish scenario: a fall below $273.88 could trigger another test of deeper support, especially if downside momentum strengthens.
In a recent review, analysts noted that Cboe Global Markets was experiencing short- to medium-term downside pressure but was expected to consolidate within a defined range. In light of current developments, traders should monitor for a decisive move away from consolidation, as any breakout could set the tone for the next directional trend.