Bitcoin price prediction: BTC begins 2026 stuck in six-week range despite bullish macro environment

Traders Union
All News
Crypto
BTC begins 2026 in six-week range

Highlights

Bitcoin holds $87,500 as price stays trapped below all short-term moving averages
BTC ends 2025 down 6% after the third consecutive monthly red candle
A breakout from the $80,000 to $94,000 range could define early 2026 sentiment direction

On the broader timeframe, Bitcoin is holding above the 100-week EMA at $85,800, though still capped below the 50-week and 20-week averages, a setup that reflects broader uncertainty. The RSI on the daily chart is currently reading 45, a level that has been consistent since November. This keeps the momentum on the bearish side, supported by a fear and greed index reading of 31. Traders are evidently cautious entering the new year despite multiple supportive developments throughout 2025.

Bitcoin price dynamics (July - Dec 2025). Source: TradingView

December’s close locked Bitcoin's price in a third consecutive red monthly candle. This marks the first three-month losing streak since the second quarter of 2022. Despite the pro-crypto policy tone from the incoming US administration, the 2024 halving event, and three separate 25-basis-point rate cuts in 2025, Bitcoin still ended the year more than 6% lower. That decline followed a steep pullback from the all-time high of $126,000 and reflects a broader sentiment reset after the explosive first half of 2025.

BTC open interest and long ratio stagnate as traders wait for a breakout catalyst

Despite the year-end weakness, the last six weeks have been characterized by consolidation. Bitcoin has traded between a support base at $80,000 and a resistance ceiling near $94,000. The $80,000 level coincides closely with the 100-week EMA, providing technical support. This rangebound movement has been accompanied by steadily declining weekly volume, which suggests thinning conviction from both bulls and bears.

Derivatives data shows that the long-to-short ratio has oscillated between 3.3 and 6.0, while open interest has hovered around $30 billion. These stagnant metrics reflect a lack of directional conviction and point to traders waiting for a catalyst.

The breakout from this six-week range will determine how sentiment unfolds in early 2026. A move above $94,000 could attract trend-following flows, while a decisive break below $80,000 risks triggering a deeper retracement below key weekly support.

In recent analysis, we discussed how Bitcoin jumped 2.8% as spot outflows drained short-term selling supply. Open interest surged above $28 billion, while $90,300 resistance decided December’s closing direction.

This material may contain third-party opinions, none of the data and information on this webpage constitutes investment advice according to our Disclaimer. While we adhere to strict Editorial Integrity, this post may contain references to products from our partners.