Bittensor jumps 7.16% as halving drives scarcity and ETF launches spur demand

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Bittensor surges 7.16% to $278.20 today

Highlights

Bittensor completed its first halving on December 14, 2025, cutting TAO token emissions by 50% and reducing annual inflation to 13%.
TAO’s supply dynamics now mirror Bitcoin’s model, as demand rises with increased AI subnet use, enhancing the asset's scarcity amid expanding utility.
The introduction of ETF and trust products by Grayscale and Bitwise signals institutional adoption and could drive broader, regulated market participation in TAO.

Supply scarcity and institutional flows as halving and new funds drive sentiment

Bittensor completed its first halving on December 14, 2025, reducing TAO token emissions by 50% and lowering annual inflation to 13%, making the asset more scarce. This event realigns TAO’s supply dynamics similarly to Bitcoin’s model, as demand for the token increases with expanding AI subnet use. The launch of ETF and trust products from institutions like Grayscale and Bitwise marks a move toward regulated access and could further support adoption, while ongoing network developments continue to drive institutional interest.

Mixed momentum and overbought signals as price nears session highs

The nearest dynamic support is the Kijun at $256.25, while MA-50 at $267.36 now acts as immediate support; with the price above these, resistance lies at the next key level or round number around $300. Momentum indicators are mixed: ADX shows moderate trend strength and points to ongoing buying, while the D1 MACD suggests strong selling pressure, revealing some divergence in market momentum. Oscillators highlight overbought conditions on the Stoch RSI and CCI, with RSI still in bullish territory, and Bull/Bear Power (BBP) indicates buyers dominate intraday action. The awesome oscillator remains neutral and does not currently reinforce the uptrend. Price opened higher at $267.70 versus the previous close of $259.60 (upward gap), and after a 7.16% intraday rally is now printing near the daily high ($278.20 in a $266.10 — $278.00 range). Intraday volatility has been high, with a clear tone of strength toward the session highs.

Range consolidation expected as upside probability remains limited

Looking ahead, the expected range for TAO over the next five trading days is $273.90 to $297.00, reflecting a typical volatility band relative to current levels. The probability of further upside is very low (less than 20%), making a pullback or sideways action more likely. In the baseline scenario, TAO consolidates between $274 and $297 as overbought signals unwind. A bullish scenario requires a breakout above $297, potentially testing $305 — $310, while the bearish case sees the price fall below $274, exposing $265 — $256 as the next supports.

Viktoras Karapetjanc, expert at Traders Union, sees Bittensor’s post-halving environment as fundamentally solid. He notes robust short-term momentum, institutional inflows, and a favorable macro setup, though technical signals show short-term overbought risks. The analyst expects TAO to consolidate just below $300 as the market digests the halving impact and recent gains. Karapetjanc believes longer-term prospects remain positive as regulated products and AI sector growth boost sentiment. "TAO’s fundamentals and institutional interest support constructive bias — any near-term pullback looks like opportunity, not threat."

Previously it was reported that Bittensor is exhibiting short-term bullish momentum above its 20-day moving average, but continues to face resistance at the 50-day and remains well below the 200-day, highlighting lingering medium- and longer-term bearish pressure. Key indicators reflect mixed signals with MACD and RSI leaning bearish, immediate support near $260.75 and resistance at $269.77, and technicals favoring continued consolidation within a defined range amid elevated volatility.

Source of Data: TAO Price Analysis by TU

The analysis is based on a proprietary model combining technical, on-chain, and expert data. Not investment advice. See methodology

The information is based on forecasts and does not constitute investment advice or a guarantee of future results. Market conditions may change. See our Disclaimer and Editorial Integrity for details.