TON weekly outlook: slides 7.62% as bearish momentum dominates below key resistance

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Toncoin falls 7.62% this week

Highlights

TON is trading well below its weekly MA-20 (2.043) and MA-50 (2.750), underscoring sustained medium- and long-term downside risk.
Weekly technical indicators—including MACD, ADX, RSI at 34.3, and oversold oscillators—confirm strong, persistent seller dominance and high downside momentum.
Near-term projection expects TON to trade between 1.530 and 1.610, with probability of a bullish move above 1.610 rated below 20%.

Token unlock and tech developments shift sentiment as regulatory focus intensifies

Toncoin is undertaking a significant token unlock this week, releasing over $62 million worth of tokens, equivalent to about 1.5% of its circulating supply. This event could influence market liquidity and investor sentiment around the asset. Additional developments include the launch of AlphaTON's Claude Connector, which integrates Anthropic's AI with TON blockchain technology, and increased attention on regulatory changes affecting Telegram, a key platform for TON.

Bearish momentum deepens as oversold signals and resistance persist during week

Weekly technical indicators for TON continue to show strong bearish momentum. The price remains firmly below the weekly MA-20 ($2.043), MA-50 ($2.750), and Ichimoku Kijun ($2.149), indicating persistent downward trend and strong dynamic resistance near the Kijun line. The weekly RSI sits at 34.3 with both the Stoch RSI and CCI in oversold territory, reflecting protracted seller control. MACD and ADX further confirm the dominance of sellers, while the BBP's negative reading underscores bearish sentiment; meanwhile, the Awesome Oscillator remains neutral, providing little counterbalance to the prevailing trend. Weekly volatility has been high, with prices nearer recent lows and little sign of imminent recovery.

Range-bound volatility likely as sideways-to-bearish trend dominates next week

Over the next five to seven trading days, TON is expected to move between $1.530 and $1.610, reflecting ongoing volatility and a sideways-to-bearish outlook on the weekly chart. The probability of a price increase is very low, with continued selling likely to dominate. A move above $1.610 could open the way to test resistance near $1.623, but a break below $1.530 would likely prompt renewed declines, targeting lower weekly extremes.

Jainam Mehta, market strategist, interprets this week’s Toncoin price weakness and technical setup as a continuation of the prevailing bearish trend. He sees little evidence for reversal, with momentum and oscillators confirming seller control and major resistance positioned above the $2.00 mark. The upcoming $62 million token unlock and ongoing regulatory scrutiny may further weigh on sentiment and reinforce downside risk. "With the indicators so firmly bearish and volatility elevated, I see no compelling reason to chase upside — my focus remains on preservation and opportunistic entries only if price action proves otherwise above $1.610."

Previously it was reported that Toncoin remains in a persistent downtrend, trading well below all key moving averages as sellers maintain dominance and oversold signals emerge across major technical indicators. Analysts note that the asset is likely to trade sideways within the $1.55 to $1.65 range, with moderate volatility and limited upside potential unless resistance near $1.65–$1.70 is decisively breached.

Source of Data: TON Price Analysis by TU

The analysis is based on a proprietary model combining technical, on-chain, and expert data. Not investment advice. See methodology

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