Solana price prediction: Will downside volatility continue? SOL drops below $97

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Solana drops 7.45% to $96.89 today

Highlights

Solana processed 2.3 billion on-chain transactions in the past 30 days, signaling continued ecosystem activity growth despite market headwinds.
Institutional demand softened as Solana spot ETFs recorded a $2.45 million net outflow, the first withdrawal since launch.
SOL trades at $96.89, well below key moving averages, with strong bearish momentum indicating downside risk and a likely range of $92.00–$102.00 next week.

Institutional outflows rise as ecosystem shows mixed activity

Solana’s on-chain activity remains strong, with 2.3 billion transactions processed in the past 30 days, reflecting growth over the previous month. Institutional demand has weakened, as spot ETFs for Solana recorded a net outflow of $2.45 million, marking the first such withdrawal since launch. In ecosystem developments, Jupiter has integrated with Polymarket and secured a $35 million investment from ParaFi Capital, while Arcium has launched its Mainnet Alpha and Umbra has begun rolling out privacy features.

Momentum deteriorates amid heavy selling and oversold signals

Momentum signals remain bearish, with the MACD and ADX both suggesting ongoing weakness. The RSI and Commodity Channel Index show oversold conditions, and the Stochastic RSI also points to a strong oversold reading. Bull/Bear Power confirms seller dominance with a significant negative value, supporting the observed downward move. The Awesome Oscillator aligns with the current downtrend. SOL opened nearly flat relative to the previous close, showing no gap, and is now trading near the low of today’s range following a sharp 7.45% decline. This price action comes with high intraday volatility and sustained pressure after the open, matching the bearish momentum signals, though short-term oscillators indicate possible exhaustion among sellers.

Downside risk prevails as sustained rally prospects diminish

For the coming week, the expected price range is between $92.00 and $102.00, keeping movements within a typical volatility band relative to current levels. There is a very low probability (less than 20%) of a sustained price increase, making a further decrease much more likely. In the baseline scenario, SOL could consolidate sideways between $92.00 and $102.00 if selling pressure moderates. In a bullish case, a rebound above $102.00 would face resistance near $110.00, while a breakdown below $92.00 may trigger further losses and intensify downside risk.

Anton Kharitonov, expert at Traders Union, notes that Solana remains firmly under technical pressure. He sees bearish momentum signals, oversold readings, and significant institutional outflows as reasons for skepticism. On-chain activity is robust, but it has not translated into price support. "With resistance stacked above and no clear catalyst, I remain defensive until SOL reclaims at least $102.00 for a sustained move."

Previously it was reported that Solana remains one of the most actively used layer-1 blockchains, with its price recently stabilizing near the lower edge of its multi-month range amid ongoing market volatility and sustained on-chain activity. Analysts note that while Solana continues to display elevated volatility and faces technical resistance near prior highs, supporting factors include strong ecosystem engagement and resilient user demand, with risk management advised given persistent macro and sector-specific headwinds.

Source of Data: SOL Price Analysis by TU

The analysis is based on a proprietary model combining technical, on-chain, and expert data. Not investment advice. See methodology

The information is based on forecasts and does not constitute investment advice or a guarantee of future results. Market conditions may change. See our Disclaimer and Editorial Integrity for details.