XRP price prediction: More volatility ahead as XRP struggles below key averages

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XRP drops 1.49% today to $1.334

Highlights

SBI Ripple Asia and the Asia Web3 Alliance Japan signed an agreement on February 20, 2026, to support XRP-backed bonds and the XRP Ledger’s real-world adoption.
Ripple’s legal battle with the U.S. SEC has ended, clearing the way for new XRP partnerships and $3.5 million in institutional investment inflows last week.
XRP trades firmly below its MA-20 ($1.4206), MA-50 ($1.7460), and MA-200 ($2.3226), with strong bearish momentum and key support at $1.20.

Institutional inflows and new partnerships as legal barriers lift

SBI Ripple Asia and the Asia Web3 Alliance Japan signed a memorandum of understanding on February 20, 2026, to drive the issuance of XRP-backed bonds and support new real-world uses of the XRP Ledger. Ripple’s legal battle with the U.S. SEC has concluded, permitting the company to seek new partnerships and product launches for XRP unimpeded. Last week, XRP investment products saw $3.5 million in capital inflows amid institutional interest and ongoing market volatility, with divergent trends between spot ETFs and the Grayscale Trust.

Bearish momentum and resistance dominance amid mixed signals

XRP’s technical outlook is decisively bearish, with the asset trading well below its short-, medium-, and long-term moving averages and encountering overhead resistance at the Ichimoku Kijun ($1.5153). On daily and weekly timeframes, the MACD and ADX indicate strong downside momentum, while the RSI highlights continued weakness without confirming a true oversold state. Stochastic RSI and CCI convey a mixture of neutral and oversold conditions, and Bull/Bear Power remains negative, confirming dominance by sellers in the intraday session. The Awesome Oscillator does not confirm the prevailing trend, and oscillator divergence points to some hesitation, but the broader momentum and price action remain clearly bearish.

High downside risk as volatility persists within defined range

Looking ahead to the coming week, XRP is expected to remain in a volatility band between $1.20 and $1.45, consistent with recent movements. There is a very high likelihood (over 80%) of further downside, while any upward shift would require a decisive break above $1.52, the Ichimoku Kijun threshold. Barring a move higher, a sideways consolidation within the $1.20 to $1.45 range is the baseline scenario, but a drop below $1.20 would open the door for deeper losses.

Anton Kharitonov, expert at Traders Union, sees XRP locked in a clear downtrend technically, with all key moving averages acting as resistance and bearish momentum dominating. Despite positive developments in partnerships and legal clarity, he remains skeptical due to persistent selling pressure and lack of any decisive bullish signals. Kharitonov believes the asset is most likely to oscillate within the $1.20 to $1.45 range unless $1.52 is reclaimed. "As long as XRP cannot break above the Ichimoku Kijun at $1.52, I remain defensive and see rallies as opportunities to reduce risk."

Previously it was reported that XRP remains confined within a narrow range near key support and resistance levels, with traders focused on regulatory developments as the primary near-term catalyst. Technical signals point to indecision as price action oscillates between the high-$1.30s and mid-$1.40s, suggesting a tactical market dominated by range trading while major trend confirmation remains elusive.

Source of Data: XRP Price Analysis by TU

The analysis is based on a proprietary model combining technical, on-chain, and expert data. Not investment advice. See methodology

The information is based on forecasts and does not constitute investment advice or a guarantee of future results. Market conditions may change. See our Disclaimer and Editorial Integrity for details.