+7% jump for Solana — US-Iran tensions drive rotation

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Solana gains 7.01% today to $82.11

Highlights

On February 25, 2026, renewed US-Iran tensions and new US tariffs triggered investor rotation into safe-haven assets, driving liquidity outflows from Solana and the broader crypto market.
A January hack targeting Step Finance and affiliated Solana DeFi platforms resulted in nearly $40 million in losses and several project shutdowns, eroding network confidence and raising regulatory risk.
SOL trades at $82.11, below its MA-20 ($83.60), MA-50 ($110.07), and MA-200 ($159.41) with a projected five-day range of $74.00–$86.00, signaling persistent downside risk.

Liquidity outflows as geopolitical risks and Solana DeFi hack weigh

On Wednesday, February 25, 2026, Solana faced heightened geo-economic risk as persistent geopolitical tensions, including renewed US-Iran hostilities and new US tariffs, spurred investor rotation toward traditional safe-haven assets and contributed to liquidity outflows across crypto markets. During the same period, the Solana DeFi ecosystem suffered a significant external security threat: a January hack of Step Finance and affiliated platforms resulted in nearly $40 million in losses and forced multiple Solana-based project shutdowns, undermining confidence in the network's resilience and exposing vulnerabilities that could attract further regulatory scrutiny. Bhutan's government-level adoption of Solana-backed visas has bolstered the asset's legitimacy in sovereign-level fintech initiatives, but this increase in state usage is yet to offset immediate downside pressure from rising macro risk and failed DeFi protections. The combination of ongoing international tensions and structural exposure to high-profile cyberattacks has elevated Solana's susceptibility to both cross-border regulatory reactions and further disruptions in global capital flows.

Bearish momentum persists as support approaches and oversold signals appear

SOL remains below short and long-term moving averages, with $74.00 as the most immediate support and $86.00 as short-term resistance. The Ichimoku Kijun at $93.31 represents an additional hurdle for upward moves. Technical momentum indicators are mixed: MACD signals strong bearish momentum and the ADX confirms a pronounced downtrend, while both the RSI at 34.56 and CCI at –152.45 highlight persistent oversold conditions, reinforced by Bull/Bear Power which points to marked seller dominance. However, the Stochastic RSI indicates a potential short-term rebound, suggesting divergence with other momentum oscillators.

Sideways trading favored as low breakout odds constrain Solana

Over the next five trading days, SOL is likely to trade within a typical volatility band between $74.00 and $86.00 as the probability of significant upward movement is low (less than 20%). Sideways price action within this range is the baseline scenario. A bullish break above $93.31 could prompt further gains, while a drop below $74.00 may accelerate downside moves toward lower support levels.

Anton Kharitonov, analyst at Traders Union, sees Solana under sustained pressure from macro risks and ongoing security concerns. He believes the failure to reclaim key averages and continued negative news flow keep the asset vulnerable. The technical backdrop is dominated by bearish signals, while oversold readings hint at only a short-term rebound. "Until SOL convincingly breaks above $86.00, further upside remains unlikely in this environment."

Last time, analysts noted that Solana remains under persistent selling pressure across all major timeframes, trading below its key moving averages and facing immediate resistance above the current price, as technical indicators like MACD and RSI signal ongoing bearish momentum. Despite short-term volatility and some oversold signals, the probability of further downside remains high, with limited prospects for a sustained reversal unless resistance levels are decisively breached.

Source of Data: SOL Price Analysis by TU

The analysis is based on a proprietary model combining technical, on-chain, and expert data. Not investment advice. See methodology

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