Solana price prediction: Bearish momentum faces challenge as SOL gains 6.13%

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Solana gains 6.13% to $81.32 today

Highlights

Solana launched the world's first Solana-backed visa in Bhutan, requiring applicants to deposit funds into TER, a gold-backed token on its blockchain.
A security breach at Step Finance resulted in the theft of over 260,000 SOL and triggered a sharp DeFi liquidity outflow, dropping total value locked to $6.3 billion.
SOL trades at $81.32, well below key moving averages, with technicals indicating strong ongoing selling pressure and a high probability of further price decline below $72.50.

Capital inflows and ecosystem stress as security breach triggers DeFi outflows

Solana recently launched the world’s first Solana-backed visa in Bhutan, with applicants required to deposit funds into TER, a gold-backed token issued on its blockchain. In the past week, a major security breach at Step Finance led to the theft of more than 260,000 SOL, impacting several ecosystem platforms and triggering a sharp outflow of DeFi liquidity, with total value locked falling to about $6.3 billion. Despite these challenges, Solana's stablecoin and real-world asset market capitalizations have grown, and the U.S. spot Solana ETFs recorded $2.4 million in net inflows on February 19.

Oversold momentum and bullish divergence as volatility hits session highs

Momentum remains decisively negative, with the daily MACD deep in "Strong Sell" territory and the ADX showing a strong trend to the downside. The Relative Strength Index on D1 sits at 34.56 and is in "Sell" territory, further supported by strongly oversold signals from both the Commodity Channel Index and Bull/Bear Power, indicating that sellers continue to dominate the market. The Stochastic RSI signals a "Buy" on D1, suggesting a potential short-term bounce, though this conflicts with the prevailing bearish momentum, highlighting a divergence among oscillators. SOL opened higher this session with a visible gap up versus the previous close, and trades near the top of today's range ($78.74 — $82.76); intraday volatility is high, and there has been notable strength toward session highs after the open.

High downside risk persists as bearish signals constrain reversal odds

Looking ahead to the next five trading days, the likely range for SOL is adjusted to between $72.50 and $86.50, keeping price changes within a volatility band of ±10% of the current level. The probability of a further price decrease is very high (more than 80%), with an increase seen as much less likely, given the ongoing bearish signals from all major weekly indicators. The baseline scenario anticipates continued sideways movement within the adjusted corridor. A breakout through the immediate resistance at $93.31 would signal a reversal and further upside momentum, while a fall below $72.50 could accelerate declines amidst continued downward momentum.

Anton Kharitonov, expert at Traders Union, sees Solana under heavy pressure across all timeframes, with technicals supporting a clear bearish bias. He notes that security events and sharp DeFi outflows add to the overall negative sentiment, despite some resilience seen in real-world asset growth and ETF inflows. The analyst maintains a cautious view, expecting the price to stay within the adjusted $72.50 — $86.50 band unless immediate resistance at $93.31 is broken. "Until SOL reclaims $93.31, my base case remains bearish — any upside is just noise for now."

Previously it was reported that Bhutan has introduced a digital nomad visa requiring a $10,000 deposit in TER tokens—each pegged to 0.01 grams of gold—alongside a $2,800 annual fee, and this move has attracted crypto firms as well as organizational interest in the region. Market sentiment around TER appears broadly positive with growing ecosystem adoption and regulatory advancements, though key support remains tied to the stability of the gold peg and ongoing demand from digital nomads and institutional actors.

Source of Data: SOL Price Analysis by TU

The analysis is based on a proprietary model combining technical, on-chain, and expert data. Not investment advice. See methodology

The information is based on forecasts and does not constitute investment advice or a guarantee of future results. Market conditions may change. See our Disclaimer and Editorial Integrity for details.