Hedera price prediction: Will RBA and ETF news spark recovery? HBAR slips further

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Hedera drops 7.41% to $0.0923 today

Highlights

The Reserve Bank of Australia leveraged Hedera Hashgraph for wholesale settlement, advancing its CBDC infrastructure project.
Institutional flows into the Nasdaq-listed Canary Capital ETF provided $93.21 million in Hedera exposure since October 2025, with minimal outflows.
HBAR remains under strong bearish momentum, likely to consolidate between $0.088 and $0.100, with pronounced downside risk if $0.088 fails.

Institutional inflows and central bank initiatives as price lags adoption

The Reserve Bank of Australia advanced its Central Bank Digital Currency initiative using Hedera’s Hashgraph technology to develop wholesale settlement infrastructure. Institutional investors were reported to have gained exposure to Hedera through a regulated Nasdaq-listed ETF managed by Canary Capital, with $93.21 million in inflows since October 2025 and only one day of outflows. Hedera’s council-based governance model was noted in industry discussions for its alignment with enterprise adoption and regulatory requirements, and appeal to institutions and banks, though price action has remained under broader selling pressure.

Limited bull support as bearish indicators reinforce range-bound trade

Technical indicators reinforce a bearish outlook for HBAR, with the price positioned well below the MA-20, MA-50, and MA-200 moving averages, and immediate resistance at the Ichimoku Kijun level of $0.0998. MACD and ADX on the daily chart both suggest weak bearish momentum, as MACD remains in Sell mode and ADX is low, indicating a lack of trend strength. RSI is neutral at 45.24, Stoch RSI is close to 25, and CCI displays no clear directional bias, while BBP’s flat stance and Buy forecast offer only limited support for buyers. The current price sits at the low end of a tight range ($0.0923 – $0.0953), with volatility moderate and sellers clearly dominating intraday action.

Consolidation risk dominates as technicals signal downside bias

Looking ahead, HBAR’s typical short-term volatility suggests a probable trading band between $0.088 and $0.100 over the next five sessions. The probability of a near-term price increase is estimated at less than 20%, with short-term downside favored as weekly trend indicators (RSI, ADX, MACD, MA-50) indicate ongoing bearishness. The base scenario is for continued consolidation within the $0.088 to $0.100 range. A close above $0.0998 would be required for a bullish shift, while a breakdown below $0.088 could prompt a search for fresh short-term support levels.

Viktoras Karapetjanc, Senior Analyst at Traders Union, views Hedera’s recent institutional inflows and its role in RBA’s digital currency initiative as strong fundamentals. He notes that council-based governance aligns well with future enterprise adoption, setting HBAR apart from many crypto peers. However, Karapetjanc acknowledges that price is still under broad selling pressure in the short term, with technicals showing weak momentum. Despite current weakness, the analyst maintains a constructive outlook based on adoption trends and institutional interest. "I believe HBAR remains fundamentally robust — a sustained move above $0.0998 could quickly shift market sentiment for bulls."

Earlier, analysts noted that Hedera was experiencing persistent bearish momentum, with prices remaining subdued under key technical levels and no signs of a bullish reversal. The latest developments—highlighted by institutional adoption and central bank pilot integration—add a new dimension, yet with prevailing market weakness, traders should monitor for a decisive break above $0.0998 or below $0.088 to anticipate the next directional move.

Source of Data: HBAR Price Analysis by TU

The analysis is based on a proprietary model combining technical, on-chain, and expert data. Not investment advice. See methodology

The information is based on forecasts and does not constitute investment advice or a guarantee of future results. Market conditions may change. See our Disclaimer and Editorial Integrity for details.