Hyperliquid price prediction: Further upside likely? HYPE declines 7.05% despite buy signals

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Hyperliquid drops 7.05% to $38.79 today

Highlights

S&P Dow Jones Indices authorized Trade[XYZ] to launch a perpetual S&P 500 derivative on Hyperliquid's blockchain, opening 24/7 on-chain trading to eligible non-US investors.
HIP-3 markets reached $1.43 billion in open interest post-launch, with nearly all protocol fees routed to aggressive HYPE token buybacks and burns, attracting institutional activity despite a broad selloff.
HYPE trades in the $37.20–$41.70 expected range with bullish momentum and overbought signals, indicating high consolidation probability with strong upside risk above $41.70.

Institutional inflows and protocol buybacks as derivative launch boosts activity

On March 18, 2026, S&P Dow Jones Indices licensed the S&P 500 index to Trade[XYZ] for the launch of an officially licensed perpetual derivative contract on the Hyperliquid blockchain, allowing 24/7 on-chain trading access for eligible non-US investors. Following the launch, open interest in HIP-3 markets was recorded at $1.43 billion, driven by demand for traditional asset perpetuals and record trading volumes. Nearly 97% of protocol fees were allocated to HYPE token buybacks and burns, and a whale holding a 5x leveraged long position in HYPE recorded $4.7 million in unrealized gains, signaling increased institutional participation in Hyperliquid's derivatives infrastructure, though price action has remained under broader selling pressure.

Momentum signals diverge from overbought readings as buyers dominate

Technical analysis shows HYPE trading above all key moving averages, with immediate Ichimoku Kijun support at $34.70 and broader bullish structure on short-, medium-, and long-term timeframes. Momentum indicators on the daily chart are positive, with MACD and ADX both delivering buy signals; however, the RSI is elevated at 72.93, CCI at 150.69, and Stoch RSI at 100.00, all highlighting overbought conditions. BBP also shows overbought status, suggesting buyers dominated recent intraday action despite the notable daily loss. The absence of a significant opening gap, high intraday volatility, and persistent pressure after the open indicate a divergence between strong momentum and overbought readings, calling for caution on the immediate upside.

Sideways consolidation favored as recurring buy signals reinforce upside bias

Over the next five trading days, HYPE is expected to trade within a typical volatility band of $37.20–$41.70, centering the current price amidst recent swings. The probability of further price increases remains very high — above 80% — given persistent buy signals on both weekly and daily momentum indicators. Baseline expectations see HYPE consolidating in a sideways band; a move above $41.70 could open renewed upside, while a drop below $37.20 could trigger a short-term correction towards deeper support.

Viktoras Karapetjanc, expert at Traders Union, sees continued strength in Hyperliquid (HYPE), despite the recent decline. He notes robust demand and institutional interest following the S&P 500 perpetual contract launch, which reinforces the bullish macro and sentiment backdrop. HYPE remains above key moving averages and momentum signals are strong, but overbought conditions and recent volatility advise careful attention to near-term risks. Fundamentally, the protocol’s buyback and burn mechanisms, together with elevated trading activity, provide further support. "While short-term caution is warranted, I believe HYPE remains positioned for sustained growth as institutional adoption drives market confidence."

Previously it was reported that S&P Dow Jones Indices partnered with Hyperliquid to bring officially licensed S&P 500 perpetual derivatives to the on-chain trading ecosystem, marking a significant step in merging traditional finance with decentralized infrastructure. Now, with robust institutional activity, high protocol fee buybacks, and persistent bullish momentum alongside overbought conditions, the sustainability of HYPE’s current uptrend may hinge on whether it decisively holds above short-term support at $37.20 in the coming sessions.

Source of Data: HYPE Price Analysis by TU

The analysis is based on a proprietary model combining technical, on-chain, and expert data. Not investment advice. See methodology

The information is based on forecasts and does not constitute investment advice or a guarantee of future results. Market conditions may change. See our Disclaimer and Editorial Integrity for details.