XRP price prediction: Sideways action ahead? XRP eyes $1.40 resistance

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XRP rises 1.49% today to $1.3538

Highlights

Ripple settled with the SEC, limiting regulatory risk as past XRP sales to general investors were not deemed securities transactions.
Ripple's preliminary approval to establish a national trust bank marks a step toward U.S. federal regulatory integration and possible institutional credibility.
XRP remains under bearish pressure, with indicators signaling continued downside and a likely sideways range between $1.33 and $1.40.

Institutional progress and settlement influence market sentiment

Ripple Labs has reached a settlement with the SEC regarding its past sales of the XRP token, resulting in a financial penalty but confirming that sales to general investors were not classified as securities transactions. Additionally, Ripple Labs has received preliminary conditional approval to set up a national trust bank in the United States, taking steps toward becoming a federally regulated institution. Institutional adoption and prevailing interest rate levels are also influencing sentiment.

Seller dominance prevails amid oversold technical signals

From a technical perspective, sellers maintain control as XRP continues to trade below its key moving averages on all major timeframes. The Ichimoku Kijun at $1.4518 acts as immediate resistance. On the daily chart, momentum indicators signal weak upside potential: MACD and ADX both reflect a lack of bullish strength, RSI sits at 39, and both Stoch RSI and CCI remain in oversold territory. BBP is negative, confirming ongoing dominance by sellers, though the session has seen the price move closer to the day’s high in a moderately volatile environment. There is a notable divergence between intraday rebound attempts and the broader downward momentum.

Limited upside as volatility constrains breakout risk

Over the next five trading days, the price is likely to fluctuate within a typical volatility band between $1.33 and $1.40. With the weekly MA-50, RSI, ADX, and MACD all signaling Sell, there is less than a 20% probability of a sustained upside. Sideways movement within this corridor is the baseline expectation. A push above $1.40 could open room for short-term gains, while a move under $1.33 would point to a continued downtrend.

Viktoras Karapetjanc, expert at Traders Union, notes that Ripple’s regulatory progress and bank approval signal improving fundamentals and growing institutional interest. He sees that despite short-term technical weakness, broader sentiment is underpinned by constructive news and steps toward regulation. The analyst expects sideways movement with any recovery efforts challenged by ongoing seller control, but considers the environment supportive for future rebounds. "I am encouraged by Ripple’s regulatory advances and believe that, with increasing institutional engagement, XRP has a solid foundation for longer-term upside if key resistance levels are reclaimed."

Earlier, analysts noted that XRP’s persistent struggle below its key moving averages signaled a prevailing bearish bias and limited prospects for a meaningful upside reversal. With Ripple Labs’ regulatory settlement and trust bank approval now in play, ongoing institutional interest and macro factors introduce new dynamics, making a decisive break above $1.40 a pivotal trigger for a potential shift in the market’s direction.

Source of Data: XRP Price Analysis by TU

The analysis is based on a proprietary model combining technical, on-chain, and expert data. Not investment advice. See methodology

The information is based on forecasts and does not constitute investment advice or a guarantee of future results. Market conditions may change. See our Disclaimer and Editorial Integrity for details.