Aave surges 22.99% but technical signals point to extended rangebound trading: weekly review

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Aave rises 22.99% this week

Highlights

AAVE faces persistent medium- and long-term selling pressure, trading below key moving averages with resistance near $133.
Despite a recent 22.99% weekly rebound, momentum indicators remain bearish and suggest limited buying interest at current levels.
Expected price range for the next week is $105.20 to $118.60; downside risk dominates unless price breaks above $118.60.

downward momentum persists over the week as technicals weaken

Technical analysis on the weekly (W1) timeframe reveals persistent downward momentum. AAVE trades well below major weekly moving averages, with the nearest overhead resistance set by the MA-20 at $133.04. Support for the week is identified at $105.20, while $118.60 stands as immediate resistance. The RSI, CCI, and Stochastic RSI all point toward oversold or continued selling conditions, with both the weekly MACD and ADX echoing weak momentum and a lack of bullish confirmation. Sellers maintain the upper hand according to the Bull/Bear Power indicator.

volatile range forecast for next week as bearish momentum holds

Looking ahead to the next 7 days, AAVE is forecasted to remain volatile within a range of $105.20 to $118.60, based on current W1 indicators and price action. The base case anticipates continued rangebound trading as bearish momentum persists and buyer interest remains low. There is a less than 20% probability of an extended upward breakout above resistance. A move below $105.20 could accelerate selling pressure, while a close above $118.60 may temporarily boost short-term sentiment, though this scenario is not supported by technical signals.

Viktoras Karapetjanc, expert at Traders Union, sees this week’s pronounced rebound in AAVE as an encouraging sign for bulls despite the asset closing well below its key weekly moving averages. He notes that the price’s strong 22.99% jump demonstrates renewed buyer interest, yet acknowledges sellers continue to control the broader trend under stiff resistance at $133.04. The analyst believes heightened volatility and oversold readings present opportunity, even as overall momentum points to continued range trading between $105.20 and $118.60 in the coming week. Karapetjanc is constructive, expecting that signs of stabilization could set the stage for a bullish breakout if momentum improves. "After this week’s sharp rally, I see the door open for further upside if buyers build confidence above resistance — keep an eye on $118.60 for a potential early signal."

Earlier, analysts noted that Aave was experiencing short-term rebounds against a backdrop of persistent long-term bearish momentum and overbought risk. With current weekly indicators underscoring continued weakness and dominance by sellers, traders should closely monitor the $105.20 support level, as a decisive break below it could trigger heightened downside volatility in the days ahead.

Source of Data: AAVE Price Analysis by TU

The analysis is based on a proprietary model combining technical, on-chain, and expert data. Not investment advice. See methodology

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